Good polls continue to come in. They show why Dailykos Elections is now putting the race at 96% “win” for Hillary. These polls are obviously conducted before yesterday’s news cycle that saw 5 women come forward to share their “Trump groping” stories, as well as 3 other stories that had come out previously getting new play again in light of the recent revelations about Trump’s penchant for sexual attacks.
1. Florida poll — Hillary 49%, Trump 43% +6%
Florida Atlantic University Poll: Clinton Takes 6 Point Lead In Florida. Voters’ Economic Conditions Driving Vote
A new poll of Likely Florida voters by Florida Atlantic University has Hillary Clinton opening up a six point lead over Donald Trump 49% to 43% with 7% undecided. This is an 8 point increase for Clinton since the last FAU poll in August that had Trump leading by 2, 43% to 41%. The poll was conducted October 5-9 and carries with it a 4.9% margin of error.
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In this new poll we see an 8% turnaround from the previous poll this polling firm conducted.
Economic outlook of voters’ is a key factor with respondents who said the economy had improved in the last year supporting Clinton 77% to 18% for Trump, while those who said it has gotten worse are supporting Trump 70% to 19% for Clinton. It appears voters’ confidence in the economy as measured by the Michigan Consumer Sentiment index is driving voters’ attitudes about the candidates. While the national average in September for Consumer Sentiment is 91.2, Clinton voters had an average score of 129.4 while Trump voters scored a 66.7. This same disparity was found amongst Hispanic voters where those supporting Clinton scored a 127.4 and those supporting Trump scored a 65.1.
2. New Hampshire poll: Hillary 46%, Trump 38% +8%
Greenlan Quislan Posner poll:
Hillary Clinton beats Donald Trump 46 to 38 percent in a four-way trial heat
Hillary Clinton enjoys a comfortable margin here. Hillary Clinton beats Donald Trump 46 to 38 percent in a four-way trial heat. This margin echoes recent public polling in New Hampshire.
3. Pennsylvania poll: Hillary 51%, Trump 42% +9%
Bloomberg/Setzer poll:
Clinton Dominates in Key Philadelphia Suburbs, Bloomberg Poll Finds
Hillary Clinton holds a commanding 9-point lead on Donald Trump in the critical state of Pennsylvania and is trouncing him in the Philadelphia suburbs, where more than 80 percent of voters say they’re bothered by the 2005 video of the Republican nominee bragging about groping women.
Clinton has 51 percent to Trump’s 42 percent in a two-way race statewide, with her margin swelling to 28 percentage points in four suburban counties that were once reliably Republican, according to a Bloomberg Politics poll conducted Friday through Tuesday after the video’s release.
4. Wisconsin poll: Hillary 44% — Trump 37% +7%
NEW MARQUETTE LAW SCHOOL POLL FINDS WISCONSIN VOTERS SHIFTING SUPPORT TO CLINTON AFTER TRUMP VIDEO RELEASE
A new Marquette Law School Poll finds 44 percent of Wisconsin likely voters supporting Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton for president and 37 percent supporting Republican Donald Trump, with Libertarian Gary Johnson at 9 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 3 percent. Six percent do not express a preference, saying that they will vote for neither candidate, will not vote or don’t know how they will vote.
The poll was conducted Oct. 6-9 and was completed before the second presidential debate. The poll began interviewing voters the day before the Washington Post published a story and a 2005 recording in which Trump described, in graphic detail, his treatment of women.
“The publication appears to have caused a significant shift in Wisconsin voters’ attitudes, across several different demographics,” said Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School Poll.
5. Nevada poll: Hillary 47%, Trump 43% +4%
PPP:
Hillary leads Trump by 4%
Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by an identical 4 point margin to Cortez Masto’s lead, at 47/43. This is the first time we’ve found Clinton and Cortez Masto polling on par with each other in our Nevada tracking.
Cortez Masto is leading Joe Heck by 4% in Nevada. Let’s keep Harry Reid’s Senate seat for Democrats.
As of this writing Hillary gets 272 Electoral College votes from states where she is at 98% to 100% probability to win. That’s why strong optimism is warranted. However, we need as many Democratic Senators and House members as we can get, and with Trump as the opponent we have a great chance to get… A LOT. So, double down on canvassing, double down on phone banking, pledging, other GOTV efforts. We can do this, we can win the Senate and perhaps even the House. Let’s do it together.