we have seen a lot of indicators — polls showing Clinton up in AZ and GA, with UT, TX and AK in play
a series of national polls out in last two days showing an average margin of +9 in 4-way race
the Clinton campaign expanding the map
the clear smell of panic from the Trump campaign with the increasing rhetoric about a rigged election
So let me offer two pieces of data that tend to answer the question in my title in the affirmative.
1. On Morning Joe just now, well-connected Republican Steve Schmidt, who has been blunt that the race is over for some time, was asked by Joe Scarborough what the over/under was on the electoral college, and Schmidt responded that it was more than 400 electoral votes. He said the Senate was done, and that were the election today Republicans would lose at least 25 seats. He has in recent appearances made clear that the bleeding has not stopped, that there is increasing panic in Republican circles based on what they are seeing in internal polling for down ballot races.
2. A new poll out from PRRI about which you can read here. I am not going to reproduce the graph, but instead simply show the trend for the past month by showing the numbers:
date Clinton Trump
Sept 22-25 43 43
Sept 28-Oct 2 47 41
Oct 5-9 49 38
Oct 12-17 51 36
In one month, Trump down 7 and Clinton up 8.
3. Obama’s approval ratings remain strong, and are even increasing, across the major polls
4. CLinton’s approval ratings are going up, and there are now some polls showing her even or even in positive territory. In general Trump’s disapproval is going up
5. We have seen a drop in enthusiasm among Trump supporters and an increase for Clinton supporters in several polls
6. Consider a couple of tweets:
7. We have lots of additional data on early and absentee voting and registration that point to a strong Democratic performance.
It’s funny — For a long time my target for EC was 348 — 2012 states, NC, and NE CD2. As of yesterday morning, before seeing TX polls, I might have raised that to 375 — adding AZ and GA. I now think TX, AK and UT are possible, and it is even possible that a few other states COULD come into play.
Some analysts have said the race has remained largely stable. Mark Blumenthal and Sam Wang have been in this camp. That is, it has stayed consistently for months with a stasis of 8-10 points for Clinton. I am not in that camp, as much as I admire both.
Some people point at the first debate, perhaps in the middle, perhaps once Alicia Machado got raised, as the moment the race began to turn.
Perhaps. Clearly on the day the Access Hollywood tape broke in the afternoon, there were already strong indications in polling that there was a widening gap as women and some college educated men were leaving Trump and/or moving to Clinton.
I have always believed that Clinton would get elected, and that we had a better than even chance of taking back the Senate. My feeling was that she would win by at least 6 points, and perhaps as many as 8.
We will see after the debate tonight whether there is any change in momentum. But the kind of break in one direction is much earlier than we usually see.
I now believe that 400+ electoral votes is far more likely than a narrow win.
I have NO DOUBT that Clinton will win the electoral college.
What do you think?
UPDATE 10:10 AM: even more than what the top lines are showing us, when one goes inside some of the new polls, what we see is even more striking, as Greg Sargent of the Washington Post notes in this tweet: