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If you want to know what’s going on in Florida politics, Steve Schale is the guy in the know. He’s reporting some incredible early voting news for Democrats along the critical I-4 corridor.
Duval hasn't voted Democrat since Carter and Dems are leading there. They also won the Republican strongholds of Polk and Seminole counties.
Great news out of Dade and Broward counties as well. Record day in Broward.
This is incredible news for Hillary and Democrats. If Trump and Republicans are doing this poorly throughout the I-4 and Dems are expanding their base, we are looking at a wave election.
Let’s keep pushing for even more!
Won Duval County by 1,700 votes. Duval hasn't voted for a Democrat for President since Carter, and is one of those places where Trump really needs to run up the score. Dems also won the day in Polk County, an I-4 county that also hasn't voted for a Democrat since Carter.
Won Volusia County by several hundred, again a place that Trump was hoping to build on the gains of Romney in 2012.
And in bellwether county Hillsborough, the only place in Florida to vote for Bush twice and Obama twice, Democrats won by almost 3,000 votes, or roughly 14 points (49-35). By comparison, Democrats have a 7 point advantage in registration.
In fact, Democrats won every county along I-4, plus Pinellas -- including both Republican strongholds Polk and Seminole. The total I-4 vote was 48-33D. Seminole County hasn't voted Republican in a Presidential election since 1972.
Base turnout was also very encouraging.
In Orange County, Democrats won a robust day 53-27%
In Broward County, Democrats won a record day 63-20%
In Palm Beach, a county which improved for Romney in 2012, Dems won 53-27%
In Alachua, where the University of Florida is, it was 65-22% Dems.
And in Dade County, 10,000 more voters showed up on the first day of early voting than 2012. Of the 35,000 who cast a ballot, Democrats won the day 53-27%.
Schale also notes that these Democrats voting aren't just expected Dem votes, that Dems are actually expanding their voter base with many first time voters!
Over 28% of Democratic vote by mail returnees as of yesterday were either first time voters, or rare voters (voted in 1 of last 3), compared to 20% for Republicans. Other way of looking at it: 80% of GOP vote by mail returns are from the most likely voters, compared to 72% of Democrats. That is voter expansion.