New York, NY Mayor: New York City's mayoral election has the potential to be one of the biggest races of 2017, if incumbent Democrat Bill de Blasio earns a stiff challenge. That, however, is proving to be a surprisingly big "if." Much of his tenure has been marred by political stumbles that have angered both allies on the left and critics on the right, and his administration and campaign activities are the subject of a bewildering array of ethical investigations (five, at last count).
In a situation like this, you'd expect at least one serious opponent to walk through the door, but quite unexpectedly, that hasn't happened yet. In fact, a new poll from Quinnipiac released on Wednesday shows de Blasio's job approval rating rebounding to an even 47-47 from 42-51 earlier this summer. More importantly, the mayor manages a 61-33 score with Democratic voters, and by a 51-37 margin, they say he deserves to be re-elected. Those numbers might not seem so great, but after the mayor's rough time in office, they're almost miraculous.
De Blasio would also lead in a hypothetical Democratic primary, which is likely to be the only meaningful race next year:
Bill De Blasio: 34
Christine Quinn: 15 (former City Council speaker)
Scott Stringer: 9 (city comptroller)
Ruben Diaz Jr.: 7 (Bronx borough president)
Eric Adams: 6 (Brooklyn borough president)
Undecided: 29
Netting just a third of the vote is far from awesome, but at this stage of the game, it could just be enough. In fact, it's likely that a big reason no one has stepped up to formally run against de Blasio is because if more than one serious contender gets in, the incumbent could easily get saved by the proverbial clown car. (Candidates need only 40 percent to win primaries without a runoff in New York City, so de Blasio's not too far from the mark.)
But several potential challengers are still lurking out there, weighing their options. Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, a prominent charter school ally and one of the toughest opponents de Blasio could face, declared this week that "all options are on the table," though earlier this year he claimed he was "very unlikely to run for mayor." Jeffries now says his "inclination" is to stay in D.C. thanks to Trump's election, but he'd be able to retain his seat in Congress if he loses a mayoral bid.
The other major figure in the mix is Stringer, who's never ruled out a run himself. Recently, a longtime Stringer supporter, attorney Martin Karlinsky, sent out an invitation for a December fundraiser that he said would help elect "New York's next mayor" and asked recipients to donate to Stringer's 2017 campaign account. But Karlinsky later claimed to the Daily News that his invite only reflected his "hope" that Stringer would run.
New York is, of course, lousy with Democrats, so there are plenty of other people who could run if the likes of Jeffries and Stringer decline. Diaz, for instance, has been raising money at the citywide (rather than the lower borough-wide) limit, while Adams has said he'd like to be mayor—but that he'd be content with waiting until 2021, when de Blasio would be term-limited (if he were, in fact, to win another term).
And though Quinnipiac did include Quinn in their poll, it's hard to take her seriously after de Blasio demolished her three years ago when she campaigned for what essentially would have been Mike Bloomberg's fourth term. However, she recently started criticizing the mayor for his policies on the homeless, and she refused to say whether she might run, so who knows?
De Blasio also remains popular with unions and black voters; combine that with the clown-car problem, and we may just see the top-tier challengers all opt out, which would allow de Blasio to pull off one of the most improbable political escapes we've seen in some time.