SC-Gov: In a very strange move last week, Donald Trump said he would name South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley as his ambassador the United Nations. It's unexpected because Haley was openly hostile to Trump throughout his campaign, and it's weird because she has no foreign policy experience (though that's probably a plus in Trumpworld), and now she'll be on the hook for every international incident Trump causes. For an ambitious, young politician (Haley's just 44), it's a fraught choice, to the say the least.
But all that is really outside our ambit. Here at Daily Kos Elections, we're chiefly concerned about what will happen to the Palmetto State's governorship, not its governor. Assuming Haley's dubious promotion does indeed go through, Lt. Gov. Henry McMaster, a fellow Republican, would succeed her. McMaster had previously expressed interest in running on his own in 2018, when Haley would have been term-limited, but now he'll likely have the chance to do so as the incumbent.
And that could change the calculus for a whole bunch of South Carolina Republicans. State Sen. Tom Davis, who'd been mentioned as a potential candidate, now says that "[i]f somebody was going to run, I think that their plans are the same now," but he also acknowledged that McMaster has "impeccable Republican credentials," in the words of The State. Davis says he's still considering a bid, though, and will "assess" his options in the spring.
Davis might not have a good read on the situation, though. The first Republican to announce a bid, state House Speaker Pro Tempore Tommy Pope, already sounds likely to bail, saying of McMaster, "I want to do anything I can to work with him for the betterment of this state." Despite these comments, Pope still seems to be weighing a run, but at age 54, he can afford to wait.
A third candidate who'd been contemplating a run, former Department of Health and Environmental Control chief Catherine Templeton, offered a contradictory statement of her own. Templeton said she intends to announce her plans in January and added that McMaster's pending elevation "does not change that because I want to serve the state in whatever capacity makes the most sense." The "whatever capacity" bit makes it sound like Templeton is open to other options, one of which could be serving as McMaster's lieutenant governor. State law is unclear as to whether McMaster would in fact be able to appoint a number two of his own choosing, but Templeton refused to say whether she'd discussed the subject with McMaster.
One contender, though, who might not be dissuaded by coming events is Sen. Tim Scott. A couple of weeks ago, Scott's office put out a statement in which he did not rule out a gubernatorial bid, and now Scott himself is coyly acknowledging such a possibility, telling Politico, "I don't know about all that" with a smile on his face. That means, of course, that he does. Given Scott's prominent stature in South Carolina politics, he'd be a formidable primary opponent for McMaster, even if McMaster has the benefits of incumbency.