Pres-by-CD: Our project to calculate the presidential election results by congressional district stops in Connecticut and Minnesota. We have a chart of all 435 congressional districts here, which also includes results from 2012. That's the page you'll want to bookmark, since we're updating it continuously. We'll be pushing out new data on a rolling basis as the results are officially certified and the precinct-level election results we need for our calculations become available. (Ballotpedia has a list of state certification deadlines.)
Hillary Clinton carried Connecticut 55-41, a small drop from Barack Obama’s 58-41 win in 2012. However, while Clinton swept all five of the Nutmeg State’s congressional districts, two of them were a lot tighter than they were four years ago. While Obama won the 2nd District, located in the eastern part of the state, 56-43, Clinton won it just 49-46. Democratic Rep. Joe Courtney easily dispatched an unheralded Republican opponent 63-34, but the GOP may try to put up a tougher fight in the future.
There was a similar shift in the 5th, which includes Danbury, New Britain, and most of Waterbury. Obama carried the seat 54-45, but Clinton won it only 50-46. Democratic Rep. Elizabeth Esty beat Republican Clay Cope, a first selectman from the small town of Sherman who had little money or outside help, by a clear 58-42. Donald Trump also did much better than Mitt Romney 1st and 3rd Districts, though both seats are still quite blue. Clinton carried the 1st, which includes Hartford, 59-36, while Obama took it 63-36. Clinton won the 3rd, which includes New Haven, by a 56-40 margin, a drop from Obama’s 63-36.
The 4th District, which includes Bridgeport and several of Connecticut’s affluent New York City suburbs, was the one seat where Clinton did better than Obama in 2012: She took it 60-37, while Obama won it 55-40. The 4th was in Republican hands until Democratic Rep. Jim Himes beat incumbent Chris Shays in 2008, but the GOP shouldn’t plan on getting it back anytime soon.
We turn next to Minnesota, which had more ticket splitting than any state we’ve seen so far in 2016. Three Democrats sit in seats Trump carried by double digits, while one Republican holds a seat that Clinton decisively carried. Of the other four seats, two Republicans sit in Trump seats and two Democrats hold safely blue districts. Obama carried Minnesota 53-45 in 2012 and took six of the eight congressional districts (though two were very close). Clinton won the Land of 10,000 Lakes 47-45 and carried just three of the state’s congressional districts.
We’ll take a look at the Democratic-held Trump seats first. The 1st, which includes all of Minnesota’s southern border, violently swung from 50-48 Obama to 53-38 Trump. The shift almost threw Democratic Rep. Tim Walz out of office. During the 2014 GOP wave, Walz turned back a weak challenge from Republican Jim Hagedorn 54-46; last month, Walz beat Hagedorn, who still had little money or outside support, just 50.4-49.6. Walz hasn’t ruled out a 2018 bid for governor, but national Democrats will probably put pressure on Walz to stay and defend his seat.
Over in the 7th District, which includes the state’s rural northwest corner, there was another huge swing towards Trump. Romney had carried the 7th by an already-strong 54-44, but Trump dominated 62-31 here. Longtime Democratic Rep. Collin Peterson had beaten a well-funded opponent 54-46 during the 2014 GOP wave, but he beat his Some Dude GOP opponent by a smaller 52.5-47.5 margin last month.
The 8th, located in the Iron Range in the northeast corner of the state, also shifted suddenly towards the GOP. While Obama carried the seat 52-46, Trump won it 54-39. However, Democratic Rep. Rick Nolan pulled off a win against rich guy Stewart Mills 50.3-49.7, a margin of 2,025 votes. Mills is seeking a recount, but even he seems to recognize that it’s unlikely to erase Nolan’s lead. Mills also offered to buy the congressman a beer if he really had outperformed Clinton by as much as the results say he has. Nolan also beat Mills 49-47 during the 2014 GOP wave, so it’s fair to say he’s earned a whole lot of Bent Paddle.
The 3rd District, which includes several of the Twin Cities well-educated suburbs, is the only Clinton seat represented by a Republican. Clinton carried it 51-41, a huge improvement on Obama’s 50-49 win in 2012. However, it made little difference downballot, with Republican Rep. Erik Paulsen defeating Democratic state Sen. Terri Bonoff 57-43 in an expensive contest. Paulsen hasn’t ruled out a 2018 bid for governor: While he’d be a formidable statewide candidate, his departure would give Team Blue a better shot to take his seat.
The 2nd District, also located in the Twin Cities suburbs was the source of a lot of Democratic heartbreak. Obama had carried the district 49.1-49.0, but it shifted right and backed Trump 47-45. Trump’s coattails helped Republican Jason Lewis defeat Democrat Angie Craig 47-45 a race national Democrats once thought they were likely to win. Clinton easily carried the Democratic-held 4th and 5th Districts, while Trump decisively took the GOP-held 6th.