The big Republican promise that Obamacare repeal will be on presidential popular vote-loser Donald Trump's desk on Jan. 20 is looking not just unfeasible, but downright laughable. The problem with getting that job done in just 17 days—a technically possible feat—is that they face two very big obstacles on the way there, each made worse by infighting. First, they have to agree on a repeal plan and then they have to pass an honest-to-God budget resolution, something that they failed to do in a spectacular fashion.
"No way. I just don't think it's possible," says G. William Hoagland, senior vice president at the Bipartisan Policy Center, a Washington-based think tank and 20-year Republican staff veteran of the Senate Budget Committee.
Others think it could be done, but probably won't be. "Mechanically they can get it done," says Ed Lorenzen, senior adviser to the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. "The bigger question is, can they decide what should be in the package?"
So far they haven't been able to figure that one out, with the House maniacs (and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz) screaming for it to happen immediately, while others have proposed timelines stretching from two to five years. So first, they have to have consensus on that. Then they have to do it, and because their slim majority in the Senate means Democrats can block it with a filibuster, they have to do it through the one process that can pass with a simple majority: budget reconciliation. But to do that, there are some other steps they have to take.
No one in Congress can simply introduce a budget reconciliation bill. The word "reconciliation" refers to the process by which congressional committees that control permanent spending programs such as Medicare and Medicaid, as well as tax policy, take action to reconcile that spending with the terms of the annual budget resolution.
That means the first action must be to pass a budget resolution, which Congress failed to do last year. […] The budget resolution, which is essentially a planning document for spending and taxes for the coming fiscal year, does not go to the president for a signature. But like a regular bill, it does have to be passed by both the House and Senate in the same form. And while the budget resolution also may not be filibustered in the Senate, lawmakers have up to 50 hours to debate it and unlimited time to vote on proposed amendments, which in practice can take up to another full day.
That means the House passing it. Then the Senate passing it. Then back to committees with reconciliation instructions, and legislative changes in committees to meet the budget requirements. Then finally a reconciliation bill that goes to the White House. Republicans did pass an Obamacare repeal bill in January 2015, 2016 which President Obama vetoed. They started work on it in April 2015.
Because they've done it once, it likely won't take eight months to accomplish this time—except that they've still got the problem of all their various factions wanting to put their stamp on what this bill will be—the spending levels, the tax policies, the how-long-do-they-keep-people-dangling-with-no-plan-in-site parts. It's possible that the zeal of finally fulfilling this years-old promise of taking health insurance away from millions of Americans will win the day, and they'll put aside their infighting for long enough to get it done by Jan. 20. But it’s not at all likely.