I’ve lately been in a series of fairly intense conversations with another progressive rural friend of mine. He lives in North Dakota, on the periphery of the Bakken shale play. We are also both farmers, and as such have seen some of the changes and consolidation rampant in the U.S. economy affect us in agriculture as well, through technological development and consolidation among other things. We’ve been discussing, just for fun I guess, what the economy will look like for our children, and for the next generation all across the country.
Let’s assume that we get to something close to progressives’ best-case scenario regarding fossil fuels in the next 50 years, where we aren’t using any coal, and way less oil than we currently use. Let's also assume another generation’s worth of technological innovation has continued the precipitous decline in U.S. manufacturing jobs. The first scenario could be unlikely, but I believe the second is highly probable. Our basic question always comes back to: What will people do for a living in another 50 years?
There will obviously continue to be jobs in technology (computer programming, app development, who knows what the next frontier is here), but those will likely be filled first by highly educated, super-qualified people. For example, I’ve got a very capable family member who graduated with a 4-year programming degree, and had to return for a masters to get a decent job. Are we headed for a solely tech economy where only folks who can afford the opportunity for a bunch of higher education can compete in the workforce of tomorrow? Cars are becoming self-driving, a few are raising the agricultural products that used to be raised by many, machines are building our machines, etc.
The ultimate point I think I’m trying to make, or the question I’m trying to ask, is this: Does the community here think there's a time coming, down the road, when we’ll need to basically socialize our economy? Give people some sort of Medicare plan and a UBI of $30,000, whatever the number is, and allow those who want to or are able to to pursue the higher-paying jobs left in the workforce? I don’t honestly know the answer to the question, this diary is more about starting a discussion about our intermediate-term future in this country. I do believe it’s going to be harder and harder to find things for American workers to do in the future. What are your thoughts?