Most of us would agree, I believe, that there were a dozen reasons or more for Hillary Clinton’s defeat, everything from Russian hacking to 30 years of pummeling from the right and the media to campaign missteps. In the last couple of days, there have been three or four diaries suggesting that the primary reason for her defeat was the defection of “purists” who voted for Jill Stein.
It’s easy to point to statistics to support that claim, just as it is easy to point to statistics to support any number of other theories as to why one reason or another was the primary reason for her defeat.
For example, those who have been writing about Stein voters/”purists” cite the fact that Stein collected 51,463 votes in Michigan, a state Clinton lost by 10,704 votes. (One must assume that at least 10,705 votes that went to Stein could have or would have gone to Clinton to support this reasoning.)
Stats in Michigan also reveal other possible causes for Clinton’s defeat.
For example, in 2012, Obama out-polled Romney in Detroit by 281,382 to 6,016, a margin of 275,366 votes. Obama captured 98% of the Detroit vote. Total turnout in Detroit was roughly 288,000 in 2012.
In 2016, Clinton collected 230,836 votes in Detroit to Trump’s 7,446, a margin of 223,390, with Clinton capturing 93% of the Detroit vote. Total turnout was 248,211 in 2016. Turnout was down nearly 40,000 in Detroit alone from 2012. Had Clinton captured her 93% of that turnout gap, she would have had another 37,000 votes, easily overcoming her 10,704 vote deficit.
The bottom line is that a number of reasons combined to cause her defeat in Michigan. This kind of statistical data held true in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, as well.
Personally, I think a dozen or so reasons combined to knock her back and push Trump over the top. Choosing one, specific reason for her defeat seems not only counterproductive, but also rather ignorant, given the number of variables involved in this most complex of elections.
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If you believe you can name a Top 5 Reasons for Clinton’s Defeat, please do so in the comments. I imagine the answers will be as varied as the many distinctive viewpoints we have here, though it would be interesting to see if we reach some sort of consensus.
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Thanks for reading.