President Trump loves to be number one, so this news should please him: He achieved majority disapproval in the Gallup presidential tracking poll far faster than any other POTUS in the history of the survey. It took George H.W. Bush 1,336 days to hit majority disapproval, and even George W. Bush, who took the presidency despite a popular vote defeat and a dubious Florida recount, did not hit disapproval of more than 50 percent until 1,205 days into office.
Barack Obama crossed the mark at 936, Ronald Reagan at 727, and even Bill Clinton remained below the mark until 573 days in. It took Trump eight.
It looks like many of those who voted for Trump because of dislike of Hillary Clinton or because of their Republican affiliation, but who were never really on board with his “movement”, are no longer “giving him a chance”. They should be welcomed to the ranks of dissenters without I-told-you-sos or wagging fingers. We are the majority, but we need all the allies we can get.
But what happens now? Ten days in to this new surreality, it’s hard to imagine it persisting for another 1,451. Trump is increasingly paranoid and irritable, has tightened the circle around him, and reportedly is hardly getting any sleep. His West Wing already has the feel of Richard Nixon’s during the final days.
Eliot Cohen, a veteran of George W. Bush’s State Department, writes in The Atlantic that Trump might follow Nixon out the door earlier than scheduled: “[Trump’s presidency] will probably end in calamity. … It will not be surprising in the slightest if his term ends not in four or in eight years, but sooner, with impeachment or removal under the 25th Amendment.”
Is this wishful thinking? At present, Republicans control both the Senate and House, and seem happy to put up with the pathological president in order to get their laws signed. The odds are still against impeachment or resignation, and expecting Trump’s crony-filled Cabinet to invoke the 25th Amendment for the first time ever seems unlikely.
If, however, Trump's approval rating drops into the low 30s, and Republicans see their Capitol Hill majorities at risk (more likely in the House than the Senate), they may act against a president who was never one of them.
A Mike Pence presidency would be a dreary affair. Rolling Stone’s must-read profile of Pence betrays him as an incompetent extremist. But his mental stability is not in question, and he would probably not accidentally start a war. Unfortunately, that’s the low bar we are at today.