“The Hill” is a fairly conservative source, but they do know how to count votes. As of today, their count on Trumpcare (among Republicans only! Since all Dems are believed to be firm NO votes) breaks down like this. Remember: only 22 GOP “no” votes are needed to kill the bill, while 218 supporters are needed to pass it.
FIRM NO: 17
Leaning/likely NO: 8
On the fence: 12
Firm YES: 74
Just on this very incomplete basis alone, there are more than enough NO and likely NO votes to kill the bill. But look! there are only 111 Representatives in the count (less than half of the 237 GOP congresscritters), which means that more than half are too craven to go on the record in any way whatsoever, even to say they’re undecided. (No surprise there). But if the same proportion holds, then we might expect about 50 total GOP votes against Trumpcare, if it came up to a vote today.
This bill is toast.
Since Paul Ryan can count votes too, don’t expect Trumpcare to reach the floor in its present form. There will be changes, more CBO scoring, more changes, and more CBO scoring. This is going to be the albatross around the GOP’s neck for the next two years, folks.