Despite conventional Republican wisdom (and the supposed rationale for repealing it), Obamacare is not failing, and some insurance companies are in a "profit spiral." But if you want to see a death spiral—shrinking enrollments, an increasingly sick pool of enrollees, and skyrocketing premiums—you'll get it with Trumpcare. Drew Altman, president and CEO of the Kaiser Family Foundation, explains how high costs are going to be, because it's not just premiums that will increase. Deductibles are going to surge, too.
Health care is complicated, as the president has discovered. But here is one thing that is not so complicated: if people have modest means and limited tax credits, and coverage is expensive, they will mostly buy health plans with lower premiums — and high deductibles.
This is what is likely to happen under the GOP health care bill, the American Health Care Act. Only people who need more health care will stretch for more generous coverage. If that happens, those health plans will draw too many sick people, causing insurance companies to stop offering them for fear of losing money. That would leave mostly the low-premium, high-deductible plans.
[T]he average deductible for a typical plan in the non-group market under the GOP plan would be about $1,550 higher in 2017 than it would have been under the Affordable Care Act, based on our analysis for this column. Most of the debate has been about what would happen to premiums—but for consumers, it's total out-of-pocket costs that matter.
So for a typical consumer, the CBO estimated, buying a given plan would mean a 13 percent increase in their premium under Trumpcare vs. Obamacare. Add on to that the $1,550 more that would have to be paid for the policy. The CBO estimates that deductibles are going to increase for everyone, with insurance companies covering 65 percent of medical expenses on average under Trumpcare, compared to the average 72 percent covered by Obamacare.
Bottom line? Trumpcare is going to cost too many people too much—including their lives.
The House is scheduled to vote on Trumpcare on THURSDAY, MARCH 23. Even if you already called your member of Congress, do it again by calling the Capitol Hill switchboard at (202) 224-3121. Jam the phone lines, urge them to vote NO.