“What do the dice say?"
“Dice say nothing. They are dice."
“Why roll'em, then?"
“They are dice. What else would I do with them?”
— Joe Abercrombie, Best Served Cold
First the bad news.
- This district is red. Really red. It hasn’t elected a Democrat in over 20 years. In 7 of the last 8 elections, the Republican candidate won by over 30 points. Demographically, it’s 85% white. Culturally, it’s right in the heart of the Great Plains. It is literally the home of the headquarters of Koch Industries.
- Kansas got redistricted in 2012 by a panel of federal judges. (Long story.) The redistricting nudged the 4th District a bit to the west, probably making it even a bit redder.
- Kansas generally is a deep red state. Democrats don’t hold a single statewide office. There hasn’t been a Democratic Senator from Kansas since 1939. The Kansas GOP has deep pockets and a very broad support network. Any fight against them is uphill.
- The campaign’s biggest story of the last week has been an embarrassing public spat with the state Democratic Party over the ridiculous sum of $20,000.
- There’s only been one poll so far, back in late February, and it showed us behind by over 20 points.
Okay, so let’s put that on the table: this election is a long shot, and there’s no point in pretending otherwise. But now the good news.
- Kansas was one of the few red states where Democrats actually gained seats this past November. Democrats picked up a seat in the state Senate and twelve (!) seats in the House. Much of this is because Governor Brownback is crazy unpopular. Poll after poll has shown that he has some of the lowest approval ratings of any governor anywhere. Even Republicans couldn’t abide him. He’s about to slink out of the state capital to take a job with (of course) the Trump Administration. He leaves behind a massive budget deficit and huge problems in pretty much every area — education, transportation, you name it. So, this is a red state where we actually have momentum.
- While this is a red district, it’s built around an urban core. There’s actually a lot of raw material for a Democrat to work with. The heart of the district is Wichita, a middleweight city with a respectable manufacturing sector and several universities. It has several thousand university students, a small but thriving gay community, and a surprising number of first- and second-generation immigrants. The median age of the district is actually younger than the national average (which is pretty unusual out on the Great Plains). Wichita proper has become increasingly distinct from the rest of the district over the last decade as many Wichitans have come to realize that the Republican party really doesn’t relate to their interests or, really, care about them or their votes. So unlike a lot of other red districts, the 4th has a solid core of progressive voters and activists and a larger penumbra of independent-ish voters who could be swayed by a good candidate with a strong campaign.
- The GOP candidate is pretty crap. Ron Estes is the current state treasurer, and his tenure has seen Kansas’ finances go steadily from bad to worse. He’s very closely associated with the hideously unpopular Brownback. And he is, himself, a mediocre campaigner who’s been dodging public appearances and debates.
- Our candidate is pretty amazing. Jim Thompson is a military veteran turned civil rights attorney. He’s energetic, he’s charismatic, he’s been working absolutely tirelessly. And he’s a no-kidding progressive who’s been endorsed by Our Revolution and Democracy for America. This is not a Republican Lite candidate trying to pick up conservative votes in a red district. This is an unapologetic fighting liberal who is putting himself on the line.
- Putting aside the dispute with the state party, the campaign is going strong. This is not a gag campaign or a no-hoper going through the motions. Thompson has already raised over $250,000. He’s been aggressively organizing; his people have been on the phones and on the streets since January. And there’s general agreement that the race has tightened since that February poll.
Okay, so: it’s a red district in a red state where we’re a long shot, but we’re fighting hard. We’ll probably lose anyway, because that’s how these things go. But let’s take a moment to think about it: what if we actually pull this off? What if we win?
A win here would be MASSIVELY demoralizing to the GOP. Congressmen care a lot about getting re-elected. A Democratic win in a safe red district would send shockwaves of panic across Congress. You’d see GOP Representatives running in all directions — away from Trump, away from Ryan, away from their leadership and each other. It would be game-changing.
This is what a 50-state strategy actually looks like: a serious, hard-driving progressive charging uphill in a red state. If this is what you want to see, folks, it’s time to step up.
So: you want to buy a lottery ticket? Roll some dice? Swing hard for the fences, knowing that you’ll probably get nothing but air, but that if you do hit that ball you will tear its goddamn cover right off?
Then this, my friend, is an election for you.
You can volunteer to phonebank right here at the Thompson campaign’s web site.
Just want to throw a few dollars? Right here at Act Blue, baby. Five bucks, the price of a latte? Ten bucks, a movie ticket? Just think how amazing it will feel if you buy a little piece of the action and then we actually do this.
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See you at the polls.