The Congressional Leadership Fund, which has lurched between portraying Democrat Jon Ossoff as a baby-faced campus Han Solo and a ski mask-wearing, Molotov cocktail-hurling anarchist, has released a new poll arguing that the $2.2 million it's showered on the special election in Georgia's 6th District has been money well-spent. The claim, though, is a questionable one.
CLF's survey, conducted by GS Strategy Group, purports to show that Ossoff's favorability has sunk like a hapless Gamorrean Guard tripping into the pit of the Sarlacc, falling from 43-26 to 38-47 in just the span of a week. The size of that drop is so immense, and the timeframe so short, that it's reasonable to be skeptical.
And even by GS's own terms, it doesn't seem to have had any actual impact. While the pollster's memo didn't include proper toplines for the horserace matchup—another eyebrow-raiser—it says that Ossoff's share of the vote in the April 18 primary went from 37 percent to … 36 percent. Now, if those numbers are correct, the GOP would be very happy, since they'd mean that Ossoff likely wouldn't score a first-round knockout, something they now openly fear. That's a very big "if," though. (The only independent poll of the race had Ossoff at 40, but that was in the field 10 days ago.)
And there's one very important line that precedes the GS memo that might explain a great deal of what's going on here. Prepended to the pollster's own data is a note from CLF's executive director, Cory Bliss, addressed—crucially—to "CLF DONORS." The message explains that Ossoff had been badly out-advertising the GOP, but that the CLF rushed into the breach and stabilized the situation by running "1,000 points on TV and radio." (That's a reference to "gross ratings points," an advertising industry term of art we explain here.) CLF obviously needs to convince its financial backers that it's making smart, effective moves if it wants to keep the money flowing, so bear that audience in mind when taking all this in.
The NRCC's independent expenditure arm, meanwhile, is taking aim at an entirely different audience, going up on the airwaves with what Politico says is a $2 million buy. Shock of shocks: Their spot brands Ossoff a "DC liberal" who "doesn't even live here" (he grew up there and lives a mile to the south) and has Nancy Pelosi's backing because "he strongly supports Obamacare."
Please give $3 to Jon Ossoff and help make Republicans even more afraid!
This is obviously targeted toward Trump-leery Republicans who might be tempted to support Ossoff, in the hopes of depressing his vote and keeping Ossoff under 50 percent. It's at least better than the spot the NRCC itself released last week, pleading with voters to show up and simply "vote Republican" because the GOP field is so badly fractured.
Here's the thing, though: If Republicans were so confident that CLF's polling was right, then why are they rushing in with another huge buy? That doesn't speak to GOP confidence about the direction this race is going. The NRCC and CLF may yet succeed in their efforts, but the fact that Republicans even have to fret about this seat in the first place should make Democrats everywhere smile.