On Tuesday, Omaha held the first round of its officially nonpartisan mayoral race, and as expected, Republican incumbent Jean Stothert and ex-state Sen. Heath Mello, a Democrat, advanced to the May 9 general. However, Stothert’s 44-41 lead wasn’t exactly impressive, and next month’s contest should be quite competitive. Taylor Royal, a 27-year-old Republican whose father gave his campaign $240,000, took 11 percent. It’s possible that his supporters will break for Stothert, but his voters may also respond to Mello’s anti-status quo message. Then again, much of Royal's pitch was that Omaha needed an NFL team, so many of the people who pulled the lever for him may not exactly have partisan politics on their minds.
May turnout is also a big question. In 2009, turnout increased from 43,000 voters in the primary to 76,000 in the general; it was a similar story in 2013, when turnout went from 59,000 in the primary to 83,000 a month later. In both those races, Democrat Jim Suttle dramatically increased his vote share between the primary and the general even though most of the other primary contenders were Republicans, so there’s good reason for Mello to think that the people who stayed home on Tuesday but will vote next month will favor him. In any case, we’ll have our answers before too long.
One other good sign for Mello is that he's mostly caught up with Stothert in the money race. At the beginning of 2017, the incumbent led Mello $890,000 to $427,000 in cash-on-hand. However, as of March 20, Stothert had a considerably smaller $524,000 to $440,000 edge. Democrats have a small bench in Nebraska, and if Mello wins next month, he could be a future candidate for statewide office or for the competitive 2nd Congressional District.