Back during the primaries, and especially during the general election, there was a great deal of talk and fervent discussion about Hair Furor “hijacking” the Republican party. This kind of seemed like hyperbole at the time, since it appeared that a large part of the “traditional” GOP did not appear to be very thrilled to have this 800 lb gorilla in their room, especially the big money donors, and in some cases portions of the party were actively resistant to him. But things, they are a-changin’.
Politico has a new REPORT out chronicling the specific, concrete steps that Trump is taking, through the White House political office to actively take practical control of the existing GOP state structure. This is the political version of a corporate takeover. And Trump and his minions are being very practical and strategic about it, this is familiar and comfortable ground for Trump. To quote from the article;
Under the watchful eye of the president and the White House political office, Trump skeptics have been ousted from atop state committees. Lines of contact have been established to gauge the political temperature on the ground and monitor key upcoming races — beginning with the 2017 governor and attorney general races in Virginia.
At least in this instance, Trump is showing savvy and skill, he is actually demonstrating the “Art of the Deal”. In politics, as in business, timing is everything. Ronna Romney McDaniel was just elected the new RNC chair on January 19th, she’s still trying to get her bearings in her new position, she is in no position to effectively combat this insurrection. Trump is an old hand at this kind of strategy and tactic, and for once he’s hiring competent help;
The effort to reshape the party infrastructure is being driven by a loose collection of pro-Trump activists in the states, and overseen by the White House political office run by former Chris Christie aide Bill Stepien. For Trump, a president who frequently talks about his election victory and is famously focused on who endorsed him and who refused to, it’s an opportunity to remake his fractured party.
Now, we can all revel in the fact that Stepien stepped on his crank in the Bridgegate fiasco under Christie, but I think it’s hard to deny that he is very skilled at political machinations and infighting, and state chairs and parties are are absolutely swooning in the lavish attention they are receiving from the White House and Stepien according to the article. It seems likely that Trump is going to have at least moderate success in trying to restructure the national GOP in his image in at least several key states.
But here is the problem for the GOP writ large in this development if it comes to pass, at least in my mind. I have written repeatedly that Trump is not the future of the Republican party, or shouldn’t be, he was a one trick pony, a rock star. He came in with something almost no one other than Oprah can duplicate, universal name recognition, and incredible popularity based not on political qualifications, but on a tangible and popular persona. Trump’s early struggles have shown that popularity, persona, and even possible business acumen do not necessarily mean actual governing capability.
Trump is going to be gone. Whether it’s next month, in 2020, or God forbid in 2024, he will be gone at some point. If he is successful in re-engineering the state GOP offices to his “base” model, what happens to the GOP then? There will never be another “Trump”. After all, in the subsequent decades, there has never been another “Elvis”, he was another one of a kind. And Trump is not the “future” of the Republican party. He lost the popular vote by 3,000,000 votes. He only won the electoral college due to a small but critical number of disaffected Democratic and independent voters who crossed over in a handful of battleground states to put him over the top. If Trump continues to tank, he will lose them in 2020, quite possibly in the 2018 midterms, they want results now, and Trump repeatedly promised them results. If Trump’s base feels he’s not getting proper support from the party, they may well sit out 2018 in protest, especially with Himself not on the ballot.
This has actually happened to the GOP before, and in recent memory. The last time was when rabid Ron Paul supporters hijacked state nominating conventions, packing the leadership, and had to be defeated with party rules. And the sudden, unexpected success of the Tea Party yanked the GOP hard to the right, and with lasting effect, in fact their Freedom Caucus is currently derailing Ryan’s attempts to destroy the safety net in particular, and the country in general.
This is the threat that the GOP may not yet even realize that it faces. What happens when Trump leaves, taking his loyal “Trump only” supporters with him out the door, but the state parties are still promulgating the Trump agenda, and running the Trump ideological platform in those states? Will the big money donors still support the party, or as they did in 2016 concentrate on specific races where they can directly influence the outcome and get friendly candidates elected? How long will it take the “traditional” GOP to rebuild, or can it at all? Will the moderate, or mainstream Republican base have already abandoned the gross perversion that their party has become? This could get interesting over the next few years.