KS-02, KS-Gov: After losing the 2014 governor’s race to GOP incumbent Sam Brownback by a heartbreaking 50-46 margin, ex-Kansas House Democratic Leader Paul Davis sounded interested in running to replace the termed-out governor in 2018. However, after 2nd District GOP Rep. Lynn Jenkins announced that she would not seek re-election to her conservative Topeka-area seat, Davis began talking about running to succeed her instead. On Thursday, Davis announced that he was forming an exploratory committee for a House bid, though he stopped short of actually declaring.
Trump carried the 2nd District 56-37, and a win won’t be easy for any Democrat. However, after Republican Ron Estes only pulled off a 53-46 victory in Tuesday’s special election for the nearby 4th District, which backed Trump by an even-stronger 60-33 margin, a congressional race in Kansas may look a lot more appealing than it once did. Plenty of Republicans have dismissed Estes’ weak showing as a symptom of Brownback’s considerable unpopularity rather than a sign that the GOP brand is in trouble nationally. But even if that turns out to be true, that’s not necessarily a problem for Davis.
According to our calculations, Democrat Davis carried this seat 51-45 against Brownback in 2014, so this is a district that was already not inclined to like the governor. Kansas’ horrific budget situation has gotten no better since 2014, and Brownback is probably an even bigger liability for local Republicans than he was back then.
Voters tend to be more willing to cross party lines in gubernatorial races than in federal contests, so if Davis decides to run for Congress rather than the governor’s office, he is taking a risk. However, there are two big factors that may make a House bid more appealing. Ex-Wichita Mayor Carl Brewer is already running for governor; while Davis may very well win a primary against Brewer, it makes sense for him to run for the House and allow both Democrats to avoid a competitive intra-party contest.
And a month ago, multiple outlets reported that Trump was considering making Brownback his ambassador to the United Nations for food and agriculture. If Brownback resigned, Lt. Gov. Jeff Colyer would become Kansas’ new Republican governor. While it’s possible that Brownback’s unpopularity would rub off on his old running mate and hurt the GOP at the ballot box in 2018, it’s also possible that voters would decide to give Colyer a chance to turn things around. There’s no guarantee at all that Brownback will be able to escape Kansas before his term ends, but Davis may have decided that running for the House in an open seat was a better bet than possibly running against an incumbent.