This essay is a thought experiment composed from experience, education, reports, ideas, speculation and conjecture, in which I hypothesize that the US Navy is planning for war with North Korea, planning and gaming a very specific, limited and strategic kind of war. The likely objective will be to neutralize the North Korean ability to threaten the US or its territories and possessions, like Guam, with nuclear missile attack, while simultaneously averting a massive attack on the South by North Korea with conventional, chemical, biological and/or nuclear weapons. In the balance lies an existential threat to the people of the Republic of Korea, in the South, whose work and endurance supports the tenth largest economy in the World. This stuff seems important enough to think about.
I’m retired, after a life as a trial lawyer, preceded by a stint as a U.S. Navy Lieutenant specializing in Anti-Submarine Warfare and tactical nuclear weapons. During the Cold War, I commanded a United States Navy ASROC battery, certified for and equipped with rocket thrown nuclear depth charges, carrying the W44 warhead, meant for use against the submarines of America’s enemies. I’m no expert in anything I’m about to talk about, but I’m not completely uninformed, either, and I can read, I can think and I can report about what I’ve learned and concluded.
Keep going, if any of that sounds interesting.
Part One — The End of Diplomacy
A famous aphorism of the legendary Prussian military stratagist Carl Von Clausewitz holds that “War is the continuation of politics by other means.” This I remember from the very first chapter of the text for my Freshman Air Force ROTC class at the University. I soon dropped that AFROTC crap for marching band after I met a beautiful clarinet player. Anyway, today, while little else seems clear about the policies of the Trump administration, one thing does, at least.
First Fun Fact: Any kind of U.S. diplomacy with North Korea has shut down. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson doesn’t say much, but more than a month ago he ruled out even discussing nuclear disarmament with North Korea. If that were unclear, a couple of weeks ago, when North Korea conducted another ballistic missile test, Tillerson’s State Department spat out this gem,
North Korea launched yet another intermediate range ballistic missile. The United States has spoken enough about North Korea. We have no further comment.”
So, at this point, unless something changes we must assume that if Mssrs. Trump or Tillerson announce that all options are on the table vis-a-vis North Korea’s nukes and missiles, they actually mean all military options. As Bugs Bunny so famously said, This Mean War!
Part Two — Civilian Control of the Military May be Gone
When Donald Trump described the manner in which he has authorized the deployment of what it pleased him to call “my military”, he struck a blow against one of the bulwarks of our Republic: the premise that civilian power exerts total control over military power. That control cannot legally be delegated to the military itself; the principle is ancient, cf. delegatus non potest delegare. Yet, Donald Trump says “We have the greatest military in the world and they've done a job as usual. So we have given them total authorization.” Total authorization.
Second Fun Fact: If we give Trump’s words meaning (a risky, but unavoidable choice), we may conclude that civilian control of the military has been delegated by our CEO President to the military, itself. As with other aspects of Mr. Trump’s administration, that the Constitution gives Presidents no such power, troubles the current Commander in Chief not in the least.
Part Three — Who the Hell is in Charge Here? We have an assumed strategic objective of neutralization of the North Korean nuclear weapon and ballistic missile threat while preventing the annihilation of the South. North Korea being part of a peninsula has coastline on two seafronts. These long coastlines offer many more ways for surface and air entry into North Korea by its adversaries than the narrow land bridge of the Demilitarized Zone.
Third Fun Fact: Given news coverage and the nature of the situation unfolding in the Sea of Japan, the U.S. Navy is apparently running things for the coming war.
That means that the commander of immediate interest is the US Military Commander for the Pacific, Admiral Harry Harris (PACCOM), who says that the most immediate threat to US security is North Korea. From Admiral Harris, the chain of command leads to the Commander and Chief, Pacific Fleet (CINCPAC), Commander and Chief, Seventh Fleet (CINC7th) and the Commander, Carrier Strike Group Carl Vinson. All of these people are Admirals.
CINCPAC since 2015 is Admiral Scott H. Swift, a career Naval Aviator, which means carrier pilot. Think Top Gun. Rest assured, Admiral Swift is an expert in Aircraft Carrier Strike Group operations and tactics. His deputy commander is a career submarine officer, Rear Admiral Phillip Sawyer. That balance of command between the aviation and submarine arms of the Navy is found throughout the command structure involved in these operations.
You might ask where do surface ships like cruisers, destroyers, amphibious forces and supply ships come in? Well, in the Navy, submarine officers and aviators have a special term for all surface ships. They call them targets. That said, the very capable surface escorts in the USS Carl Vinson Carrier Strike Group will have very significant roles to play in the plans and wargaming of the carrier and sub admirals. The support fleet and amphibious forces may become involved as hostilities unfold.
That said, rest assured that these men, and yes, they are all men, have a giant pile of plans for engaging the US Navy and other US forces with North Korea, including decapitation and destruction of command and control of North Korean forces along with protection of the people and economy of South Korea. The US Navy, the Naval War College, the Pentagon and others in control of this operation have spent their lifetimes gaming, playing, exercising, training, replaying, thinking, eating, sleeping and dreaming about this. They’ve had control of all this really cool and powerful tech and have been itching to be turned loose with it for as long as they can remember. What do you think will happen if people like that are turned loose with power like that?
Fourth Fun Fact: There are no plans for the Korean Peninsula to recover from the aftermath of the apparently upcoming conflict. Unless explicitly assigned by civilian command authority, the Navy and the Pentagon will not consider that cleaning up the aftermath is part of their assignment. Meanwhile, the US State Department barely exists any longer. Probably, no one at the White House is thinking about that. (I almost put the period after “thinking”.)
Part Four — So, what’s going to happen there?
Fifth Fun Fact: information about ongoing military operation is always slippery, but there is evidence that there may be a Golf of Tonkin vibe about the operations that seem about to start. That evidence is the USS Michigan, SSGN-727, which showed itself in the South Korean port of Busan this week.
The US Navy’s small number of SSGN submarines are entirely unique in the whole world’s navies, and unusually capable, if provocative weapon platforms. They are first strike weapons designed to provoke or initiate war. SSGN’s are virtually undetectable nuclear submarines capable of launching equally stealthy cruise missiles and mass Seal Team attacks, all without the slightest warning to the enemy. They are also uniquely capable of provoking an adversary into attacking first. The Tomahawk missile’s capabilities include hover and look, and with 154 missiles with range of up to 1000 miles or more, a single SSGN, with anonymous stealth, could cover the entirety of North Korea with decapitating missile attacks while stirring up hell ashore with commando attacks.
As one military affairs writer put it:
the re-branded SSGNs are of grand scale, measuring 560 feet long and displacing almost 19,000 tons while submerged. Behind the Michigan’s sail is a modular Dry Dock Shelter, which is about 38 feet long and 9 feet tall. It is used to house SEAL Delivery Vehicles and other transportation devices used by special forces personnel. The SSGNs can be fitted with two of these systems if need be.
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The Ohio-class SSGNs are possibly America’s most powerful “all in one” conventional weapon systems, packing many times the firepower of the Virginia-class fast attack submarine and capable of supporting sustained special operations campaigns in some of the most inhospitable territory in the world. They put literally any target within 1000 miles of the coastline at risk of a surprise attack and their versatility is amazing.
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Until the last of its kind is de-fueled and scrapped, the ‘second chance’ Ohio-class SSGNs will remain the most flexible, sneaky, survivable and hard hitting conventional weapons and special operations platforms on the planet.
Sixth Fun Fact: An obvious reason to send an SSGN to Korea, and to show-off that you have done so, by giving the crew liberty in Busan, is if the overall battle plan includes starting things off with a big piece of in-your-face provocation along with a large slice of sneaky up-to-no-goodness. Our Navy would almost certainly prefer to be seen as responding to an attack than initiating a pre-emptive or first strike. Trump and his Navy Secretary may have given orders on this, but given their distaste for details, perhaps not. So, expect our Naval commanders and other force commanders to avoid immediate hostilities. But, also expect provocative gestures from our forces, followed soon by reports of attacks launched by North Korea and virtually instantaneous stealthy, precision responsive retaliatory attacks, intending to be crippling to North Korean command and control. In the meantime, the Carl Vinson strike group, with its own surface and attack submarine escort, will extend its ballistic missile defense capability over as much of South Korea as possible while allied ground forces, the ROK Navy and the carrier group address whatever reaction that the North Korea military is able to muster.
So, even if the coming hostilities in the Korean Peninsula appear to break out with North Korea attacking first, don’t be surprised if you eventually learn that our side actually threw the first punches. All of that said, I am glad, for the sake of our sailors, marines, soldiers and airmen if we have equipped them with our most capable weapons available for their use if our idiot President has ordered them into combat.
Seventh Fun Fact: America’s men and women, being sent into harm’s way for the sake of Trump’s ego, will fight professionally to overcome obstacles and endeavor to win because that is their training and their assignment. But, no matter how effectively they fight, some will suffer maiming and some will die.
Horror ahead. Stay tuned.