AL-Sen: On Saturday, longtime Republican Rep. Robert Aderholt announced he would not challenge appointed Sen. Luther Strange in the upcoming August 15 special primary election to fill the final three years of former Sen. Jeff Sessions’ term. However, Strange is still facing a potential hornet’s nest of same-party opposition due to the questionable circumstances under which he was appointed to the office by disgraced then-Gov. Robert Bentley, who recently resigned over a sex scandal. Several Republicans have already entered the primary against Strange, including former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore, former Christian Coalition of Alabama leader Randy Brinson, and state Rep. Ed Henry, who was a chief proponent of impeaching Bentley.
Strange can at least count on one powerful ally, since he previously earned the full backing of Senate Republican leadership in D.C. Now, the NRSC is threatening Republican campaign firms with a boycott if they work for Strange’s primary opponents. National Republicans previously did that very thing to the firm Jamestown Associates in the 2014 campaign cycle, but it continued to find clients, so it remains to be seen how powerful of a deterrent factor that will be to consultants who want to work for Strange’s opponents.
Over at Smart Politics, professor Eric Ostermeier runs down the statistics for how often appointed senators succeed in winning a full term, and he has relatively good news for Strange. Of the 22 appointed senators who ran in the following special election since 1980, 21 won their party’s nomination, and that includes an unbroken streak of 12 races dating back to 1999. However, another 11 appointed senators didn’t even run, some of whom might have simply thought they couldn’t win. Alabama will hold a primary runoff on Sept. 26 if no candidate wins a majority in the first round, meaning Strange won’t be able to luck out by prevailing with a narrow plurality against split opposition.
Alabama’s deep-red hue likely gives Strange much less to fear in a general election than he does in a primary, but Democrats are hopeful that they can gain traction over the Bentley saga and three noteworthy party members have expressed interest in running. State Rep. Chris England recently revealed that he was “seriously considering” a bid, while state Rep. Elaine Beech said she would discuss it with her family. State Rep. Craig Ford, who served as minority leader from 2010 to 2017, also acknowledged he was considering it, but the conservative Democrat suggested he might run as an independent instead due to his disagreement with the party establishment over his opposition to abortion rights.