Well, yeah:
Republican Greg Gianforte’s closing motivational speech to voters ahead of Thursday’s special House election in Montana is the same thing GOP strategists are whispering in private: “This race is closer than it should be.”
We should not be talking about this race at all, because Greg Gianforte should have put it away long ago. So even if Republicans are playing the expectations game—laying the groundwork to claim any Gianforte win bigger than a point as great news for Republicans—this race is already closer than it should be.
Sure, Montana occasionally elects statewide Democrats like Gov. Steve Bullock and Sen. Jon Tester, but it’s also a state that gave Donald Trump a 20-point margin. And it pits a polished multimillionaire against a musician who has not, to put it mildly, spent his life preparing to run for office. But this is the age of Trump, and here we are:
Gianforte, a technology executive, has led consistently in polls for the special election, but Quist has narrowed that lead to single digits in recent weeks, according to private surveys. “Gianforte has an edge, but it’s not going to be a slam dunk,” said one national GOP strategist.
“It all comes down to turnout” is a major political cliche, but it could be true in Montana on Thursday. Republicans have every advantage … other than motivation. Thanks to Trump, Democrats have an intensity edge basically everywhere. In states like Montana, that still gives Republicans a serious edge, but it is, as they say, closer than it should be.
The election is this Thursday, May 25. Volunteer to help Rob Quist get out the vote!