This was originally posted to The Full Slate Project. To enlarge any image below go to the blog post linked here and click on the image.
A Democrat has now stepped up to challenge for the District 65 seat in the Virginia House of Delegates race as yet this fall. Republican Lee Ware currently holds this post. The Republican was able to secure 19,842 votes in this uncontested district the last cycle. Lee has been in the post since a 1998 special election, and this seat has been in Republican hands since at least 1982.
This Republican district is pretty stable. 20,000 votes is a brisk turnout in an uncontested race.
The Democratic challenger this fall will be Francis Stevens. This means all of the districts in Chesterfield county now have Democratic candidates.
CONNECT WITH FRANCIS STEVENS
DISTRICT 65 FAST FACTS
Residents = 80,010
Active Registered Voters = 55,121
Percent Registered = 69%
Total Vote in Last Race = 20,390
Participation Rate = 37%
Total Vote for Republican = 19,842
Total Vote for Democrat = 0
Total Vote Other = 548
Localities = Chesterfield, Fluvanna, Goochland, and Powhatan Counties
District 65 has a total of 29 precincts with 12 in Powhatan County, 10 in Chesterfield County, 5 in Goochland County, and 2 in Fluvanna County. The 69% Active Registered Voters represents a strong registration number. While no one challenged for this seat in the last cycle, it has been very competitive compared to other red districts in Virginia over the last 20 years, with challengers in 6 of 10 races.
The interesting thing to note is that years in which there is a challenger, the total vote jumps up to around 30,000 votes instead of the 20,000 we see here. What makes it interesting is the total Republican vote in 2013 came in at around 20,000 votes while the additional 9,000 or so are all for the Democrat. Since there is a Gubernatorial race on in this state, having Francis in this race will pay dividends no matter the outcome here. A deeper dive into the data will help us find opportunities to potentially topple this Republican.
Let's take a look at what happened in the last race.
Here is the share of Active Voters by Locality: