VA-Gov: Quinnipiac is out with their first post-primary poll of the Virginia governor’s race, and they have Democratic nominee Ralph Northam leading Republican Ed Gillespie 47-39. Back in April, Quinnipiac gave Northam a larger 44-33 edge in what was then a hypothetical matchup. This poll gives Democratic incumbent Terry McAuliffe, who is termed out of office, a 47-37 approval rating, though that’s also a drop from his 52-32 score two months ago.
We’ve only seen a few polls here recently. The only other independent poll we’ve seen in months, an Abt Associates poll for the Washington Post in May, gave Northam a 49-38 lead. Shortly after the primary, Gillespie’s team released a Public Opinion Strategies poll giving him a 46-45 lead over Northam. Days later Harper Polling, a GOP group that doesn’t seem to have been polling for a client, showed a 46-46 tie.
Democrats have plenty of reasons for optimism, especially with Trump likely to be a drag on Gillespie in a state that backed Clinton 50-44. However, we still have relatively little data to work with, and both parties are certain to spend heavily here. And no matter what, wary Democrats should remember that polls gave Team Blue clear leads in the 2013 gubernatorial race and the 2014 Senate race, but the Democrats only narrowly won each race. It’s far from guaranteed anything like that will happen this fall, but it’s a good incentive for Democrats not to take anything for granted.