It’s kind of funny how karma comes around to bite you on the ass sometimes, ain’t it? Remember the time (recent enough for even my CRS besotted brain to recall) when the House passed their Trumpcare bill, and all of the Senators, including Yertl the Turtle shit all over it, calling it DOA and “tone deaf”?
Right now there are two separate and distinct schools of thought from the talking heads and guests on the issue of healthcare in the Senate. The first is that McConnell is going to roll over and play dead for his lord and master. His Lowness has already proclaimed that he wants more “heart” in the Senate bill, so what does Ditch do? Proposes a plan more draconian than the House bill. Done in secret, he will ram it through and risk losing the Senate in 2018 instead of 2020 from the fallout. The other line of thought is that he is purposely crafting a bill so toxic that it can’t pass the Senate, say he fought the good fight, dump it in the circular file of legislative history, and move on to fucking up tax reform or the debt ceiling.
Personally, I’m thinking that there are a lot of Senators, and even more House members in the GOP that are secretly hoping he’s doing the latter, and that the AHCA goes down like the Hindenburg, smoke and flames included. The Senate loses little in ditching this turkey with at least a show of good faith, and it would save the skins of a lot of House members who fell on their swords for Trump in the House vote, and all they got in return was a lousy can of beer, and to have their effort ridiculed by Kim Jong Don to the Senate.
But let’s say it’s one from column A, that McConnell is really going to try to ram this through. Everybody knows it’s no easy task, he only has a thin margin, and more than enough Senators already dishing it to make it fail. Most people concentrate on “The Big 4”, Ted Ctuz, Rand Paul, Susan Collins and Rob Portman. Two of them want Medicaid gone most riki-tik, while two of them would love to slow the expansion repeal as long as possible if not ditch it completely. Ted Cruz is the world class, MVP winning pain in McConnell’s ass regardless of the issue, and he has nowhere near forgotten or forgiven Trump for his treatment of Cruz’ family in the primaries.
But what if it’s not just 4 members? Politico has a new article out showing that in reality Yertl has not 4, but 11 thorns in his side to take out, and some of them have more than one issue that can drive them away from the vote. The article lays out his basic dilemma right off of the top;
He can lean toward conservatives like Rand Paul of Kentucky and Mike Lee of Utah, who want to dismantle as much of Obamacare as they possibly can. But if he does that, he risks losing a group of Senate moderates, including Susan Collins of Maine, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Rob Portman of Ohio and Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia, who are pushing for a slower phase-out of the Medicaid expansion that is covering low-income people in some of their states.
Portman and Collins have been actively pushing their own plans that they’re currently working on, just what McConnell needs, competition. The 11 Senators that Politico lists are Shelly Moore Capito, Tom Cotton, Ted Cruz, Susan Collins, Jeff Flake, Dean Heller, Mike Lee, Lisa Murkowski, Rand Paul, Rob Portman and Pat Toomey. Quite an eclectic group, but problematic in several ways.
There are several of them, such as Jeff Flake, Lisa Murkowski, Ted Cruz, Dean Heller who have to run for reelection in 2018 and have the most to lose if their constituents are unhappy with either the bill or their Senators role in it. There are several more, including McConnell himself who have to run again in 2020. And some of them who were just reelected last year and are safe. The Senators who just got reelected are almost as big of a problem as the ones up for reelection in 2018, because they can push their own agenda, secure from voter blowback for the next 5 years.
The calculations and combinations are endless. If he expedites the Medicaid cuts to less than 5 years, he risks losing up to 7 Senators. If he pushes it out past 5 years, he lists losing 3 Senators. If he even tried to cut funding for Planned Parenthood he loses two Senators, Murkowski and Collins, and risks losing Heller, who promised in a Reno town hall this spring to not only protect but fund PP. Welcome to the minefield that McConnell is tiptoeing through. With only one or two Senators, you could do a little dealing, twist their arm for a hold- your-nose yes vote on this bill in return for bringing a pet bill of theirs to the floor and pushing hard to pass it in return. But 11, and with such divergent sticking points? Not a good place to be in, when you can only lose a maximum of two votes and still let Mike Pence do the dirty deed dirt cheap.
And one more consideration. Even if this POS manages to get through the Senate, then it has to go to the House. If it’s too soft on destroying Medicaid and loosening insurance coverage restrictions, you lose the Teabaggers. If it’s too hard on gutting Medicaid and loosening insurance company coverage requirements, then you lose the Tuesday Slobs. And if the vote on the Senate bill fails in the House, then they have to go to conference to reconcile the two bills, which has its own minefield. Good luck getting a group of egomaniacs, each with their own agendas and their own political dogmas from even agreeing on where to go for lunch much less than passing a plan that can pass a straight up or down vote in both chambers.
While I learned long ago to never-say-never with a bunch of moral sewer rats like the GOP, I personally don’t see how this can get done by the summer break. And if it doesn’t, the GOP agenda for the year is shot. When they come back in September, they have the budget looming over their heads, I don’t need a crystal ball to see them wrangling over that for two weeks, with the last 10 days of the month devoted to kicking and fighting over another continuing resolution. And if recent history is anything to go by, it’ll be another BOHICA moment for the GOP, sending El Rushbo into another mouth foaming frenzy. Fun times to be sure. After that, you’ve only got one short month before the holiday recesses start kicking in.
So there you have it, the joys of trying to undo in 6 months what it took 17 months to create, all because the shit for brains in charge didn’t realize that “it would be this difficult”. Hang on a second here. Ummm, excuse me, Mr Ryan? Mr. McConnell? Can I ask you one quick question? Thanks you sirs. So, howz that whole “Unified Republican government” thingy going for you guys?