A few days ago, Topher Spiro tweeted this
Wednesday afternoon, he tweeted
I don’t think it’s quite confirmed yet, but also on Wednesday The Hill ran this story about AHCA’s latest problems.
Key provisions of the House’s ObamaCare repeal bill meant to curb abortion services are in serious danger of being dropped from Senate legislation, which could cost the bill votes from conservatives.
Senators and lobbyists said they expected restrictions preventing tax credits from being used on insurance plans that cover abortion would not be allowed. House Republicans had demanded their inclusion.
Another provision in trouble is language defunding Planned Parenthood, which provides abortion services and has long been targeted by Republicans.
A roughly $100 billion stability fund meant to bring down the cost of premiums is also causing problems under the Senate rules. The stability fund money also has abortion restrictions.
It seems that the Senate Parliamentarian will probably rule that the abortion restrictions, being non-budgetary, cannot be considered under reconciliation. If true, this could mean that the abortion restrictions might have to be dropped. In all likelihood, House extremists would be reluctant to vote for a bill without these restrictions, and without their votes the bill fails. I know it sounds crazy, but these people have shown a willingness in the past to reject any bill that does not give them 100% of what they want.
There are still some possible workarounds that McConnell and his gang could use to save their bill. The most extreme would be to have the Vice President overrule the parliamentarian’s ruling, or for McConnell to simply fire the parliamentarian. This would be far beyond the norms of Senate procedure, which would certainly not stop them from doing it, but could bother enough already-wavering Senators to convince them to vote “no.”
They might also be able to use some legislative hocus-pocus to get around the parliamentarian’s ruling (see the Hill article for an explanation of those), but it is by no means assured that that would work.
It’s way too early to say this is a done deal, and people need to keep putting pressure on their Senators. But it is possible that we are seeing a small ray of hope.