NY-22: On Tuesday, Assemblyman Anthony Brindisi became the latest Democrat to join the race against first-term Republican Rep. Claudia Tenney in this upstate New York seat, which contains Utica and Binghamton. Brindisi has represented Utica in New York’s Assembly since a 2011 special election victory, and he is reportedly the strong preference of both state and national Democrats.
The Assemblyman is known as a moderate, which could prove to be a key asset with swing voters in this historically Republican region. However, his “A” rating from the NRA is unlikely to please progressive Democratic primary voters, but so far Brindisi only faces little-known SUNY Binghamton computer science professor Patrick Madden in the primary, whose campaign has struggled to gain traction.
Obama lost New York’s 22nd Congressional District by mere fractions of a percentage point in both 2012 and 2008, but the disproportionately white working-class seat veered rightward to 55-39 Trump, while Tenney prevailed just 46-41 in a heavily contested race last year. Brindisi’s own Assembly seat lunged from 51-47 Obama to 54-41 Trump in 2016, but he nonetheless has won re-election unopposed every year since 2012, meaning he likely had enough crossover appeal to deter strong GOP challengers. The 22nd will likely be a tough seat for Democrats to flip next year, but Tenney’s hard-right image and her support for Trumpcare could give Team Blue an opening again.
One major wildcard for 2018 concerns what wealthy former Rep. Richard Hanna will do. As one of the least-conservative House Republicans, Hanna nearly lost the 2014 to primary to Tenney and retired in 2016 to avoid another tough race. Hanna recently said he was considering challenging his successor as an independent next year, which could help Democrats by stealing away center-right voters from Tenney—something that appeared to have happened in 2016 when wealthy center-right independent Martin Babinec took 12 percent of the vote. However, after Hanna endorsed Hillary Clinton, he might just as easily take more from Democratic voters if he runs, but there’s no indication of how likely he is to get in.