NV-Gov: State Treasurer Dan Schwartz has been talking about seeking the GOP nomination to succeed termed-out Nevada Republican Gov. Brian Sandoval for a while, and while he hasn't declared he's in yet, he came very close this week. Schwartz says it's " virtually certain" he'll run, and that he'll "probably announce sometime in September and have an exploratory committee in mid-August.
If Schwartz runs, he'll almost certainly need to get past Attorney General Adam Laxalt, the early primary favorite. While Laxalt has not announced he's in yet, there's very little doubt he'll run, and that he'll have more than enough money to run a tough race. But Schwartz, whom the Reno Gazette-Journal writes is " purported to be a millionaire," insists that he's not afraid, and argues that local billionaire GOP donor and casino magnet Sheldon Adelson "has bought" Laxalt. And indeed, Schwartz has not been shy about making enemies within his party. In 2015, lawmakers from both parties trashed his alternative budget proposal, and Schwartz has a bad relationship with Sandoval.
Last month, Schwartz said he'd self-fund at least $500,000 for his bid, and unveiled a poll showing him trailing Laxalt just 34-30 in a hypothetical primary. However, that poll was done by Doug Schoen, whose professional reputation is … less than stellar.
On the Democratic side, Clark County Commissioner Chris Giunchigliani recently told the Nevada Independent that she'd decide no later than mid-fall. Fellow Commissioner Steve Sisolak has already announced he's seeking the Democratic nod, and he starts with $3.8 million on-hand. However, Giunchigliani may be able to run to the left of Sisolak, a self-described moderate who has a bad relationship with labor.
If either Giunchigliani or Sisolak becomes governor, they'll be breaking a long political curse. As columnist Steve Sebelius wrote back in 2014, very few Clark County commissioners have won election to higher office. Back in 2002, then-Sen. Harry Reid reportedly warned his son Rory Reid about running for the commission, calling it a political graveyard. The younger Reid didn't listen and eventually became the commission's chair, but he badly lost the 2010 gubernatorial race to Sandoval. Giunchigliani herself ran for mayor of Las Vegas from the commission in 2011 and lost the general 61-39. Sebelius wrote that the last Clark commissioner to graduate to higher office was Republican Lorraine Hunt-Bono, who was elected lieutenant governor in 1998.
It's not clear if the curse is just the product of bad luck or if there's more to it, but for better or worse, it looks like the 2018 Democratic nominee will be a Clark commissioner. The only other notable Democrat who has made noises about running is wealthy businessman Stephen Cloobeck, whose consultant said was considering as recently as June. However, Cloobeck endorsed GOP Sen. Dean Heller, the top Democratic Senate target, back in April, which ought to be a disqualifier. There was talk earlier this cycle that state Senate Majority Leader Aaron Ford could run, but he seems far more likely to run for attorney general.