Marketplace had a news story that may not have gotten a lot of attention — but one big earthquake on the West Coast could change that. A multi-year program to develop a web of sensors is nearing completion — but the Trump budget would zero out all federal funding for the project.
The idea is simple. When sensors detect an earthquake, they trigger the alarm system. It would not help people right at the center of the quake — but seismic waves aren’t instantaneous. People farther away would get a warning in time to prepare for their arrival.
After a big push in the past decade, the system is finally in beta testing in some locations around the state. Thomas Heaton, an engineering seismologist at the California Institute of Technology, has worked on this idea since 1985.
“It's running right here in my office, and it has been running in my office for about 10 years, and I run it in my home,” Heaton said.
The sample earthquake scenario he pulled up on his computer showed a map of California with seismic waves radiating from the epicenter of a quake. Alarms rang, and an electronic voice called out a verbal warning, “Earthquake. Earthquake. Moderate shaking expected in six seconds.”
There’s a sound clip at the article; the alarm will definitely get your attention. As the system sensors react to the seismic waves, they update the warning in real time, estimating how soon it will be felt and how great it will be, depending on the distance to the center of the quake, and how strong it is. The system could provide enough warning for critical systems to react and allow people to immediately seek the safest location within the warning time.
It’s possible to buy radios that will automatically broadcast severe weather warnings, and there are ways to get emergency messages sent to cell phones; adding earthquake warnings would be a logical extension. The system would save lives and help minimize damage. Imagine elevators that stop at the nearest floor to keep people from being trapped inside, or traffic lights flashing to warn drivers to prepare for a quake. There will doubtless be other ways to put the system to use as experience is gained with it.
Local governments and other institutions are on board with the system — but they don’t have the resources to fund it or deal with potential liability issues.
Heaton said a full rollout along the West Coast would take about 1,200 sensors. So far, there are 800 installed, half of which are in Southern California. Limited public rollout of the warning alert system has been planned for next year, but that depends on continued federal funding. The roughly $10 million the U.S. Geological Survey gets for the program would be wiped out under Trump’s proposed budget.
“If it goes through, there will not be an early warning system,” Heaton said. “I'm pretty confident about that.”
emphasis added
There is bipartisan support in Congress to preserve the funding; the only question should be why the Trump budget would eliminate it in the first place. Given rising levels of dysfunction in the Congress and the government in general under the Trump regime, it remains to be seen if the system will survive — especially if the GOP Congress can’t put a budget together or deal with the debt ceiling.