On Morning Joe, Mike Barnicle reported the results of a new ARG poll in NH released exclusively to Morning Joe- were a Republican primary held today, Kasich would defeat Trump 52-40 (and Pence 51-27, with a large undecided). Worth remembering the result of 2016 Republican NH Primary:
Trump 35.3
Kasich 15.8
Now I realize that the 40% the ARG poll is showing for Trump is higher than what he got in the primary, but at that point 8 candidates got 2% or more of the vote. He lead Kasich by 19.5%, now trails by 12, or a 31.5% turnaround.
Reports from other polls are beginning to show a consistent pattern — Trump’s hard base is less than ¼ of the population, and is falling badly.
Here is a tweet by Rick Wilson showing the poll topline: