This should be fun. As if poor, GOP healthcare turncoat extraordinaire Dean Heller didn’t already have his own President running attack ads in his home state ahead of his deeply troubled reelection campaign for his US Senate seat in 2018, it’s now official. He has at least one confirmed, announced GOP primary challenger for his seat, and Democrats should be over the moon, for every conceivable reason.
Anybody but Heller “Should be sittin’ in an air conditioned, office in a swivel chair” (to quote Jim Croce). Because his announced challenger is no one other than the ever present black spot on GOP electoral politics in Nevada, Danny Tarkanian. Tarkanian, the son of legendary UNLV basketball coach Jerry Tarkanian, has run for just about every political office available in Nevada except a seat on the Library Board, where he’d probably be crushed by a 17 year old running as a high school civics project. Back in June, Tarkanian made the big time, he earned a prime spot in David Nir’s Morning Digest with the rumor that he might primary Heller.
Not only is Tarkanian a terrible candidate, he drags around more baggage than a hotel porter luggage cart. He is a business prodigy in the way that Eric Trump is a business prodigy. In a town where summer temperatures regularly top the 110 mark in the summer, and humidity goes up every year from swimming pools and sprinklers for desert lawns, Danny Boy tried to build an “equestrian destination resort”. Nobody nibbled, and Tarkanian took it in the shorts in a $17M lawsuit judgement which he quickly defaulted on through bankruptcy, finally settling for $525,000. If he wins, at least he and the Inglorious Basterd will have something in common to discuss over double bacon cheeseburgers in the Oval Office.
The funny thing is that if it were anybody other than Heller, this wouldn’t even be worth writing about. The attack ads on Tarkanian write themselves as Democrat Jackie Rosen was pleased to discover in 2016 when she beat him to flip the seat opened when Joe Heck ran for Harry Reid’s newly open seat. The one I liked was the ad with a Tarkanian look alike digging a hole in the middle of the desert, and then throwing all of his files and even his phone in the hole, along with campaign posters before starting to fill the hole in again. But Heller is so unpopular in Nevada that Tarkanian just might have a realistic chance to oust him in a primary. If Heller has a lifeline, it’s gong to be the seven digit ad buy McConnell’s PAC committed to in the overt purchase of Heller’s repeal vote, something else that will not endear Heller to Nevada voters.
Danny Tarkanian is actually running for this seat for the wrong reason, revenge. Democrat Jackie Rosen has already announced she will run for this seat next year, and even with his baggage Tarkanian only lost to Rosen by 1 point in 2016. Even this was a notable accomplishment since Cook Political Report shows the district as a R-+2. The seat has a chunk of Henderson and most of incorporated Clark County, including most of Las Vegas. The fact that Rosen only managed to pull off a 1 point victory over a primordial ooze puddle like Tarkanian shows that she wasn’t exactly a candidate who set the base on fire, but she got the job done.
This primary should be a knock down, drag out brawl. Tarkanian has money of his own to spend, enough name recognition to keep getting on GOP ballots to lose seats, and an established donor base to draw from. Heller is a skim milk Senator. He flip-flopped on the healthcare repeal issue, infuriating Trump enough to run attack ads against him instead of wooing him back into the fold, and may have angered the GOP base by promising federal funding for Planned Parenthood in a Reno town hall earlier this year. Tarkanian on the other hand is already cuddling up to Trump, starting with his candidacy announcement, a risky business in a state where the all powerful culinary union is still feuding with Trump over his anti union stance at his off the Strip schlock palace. And it looks for all the world like Tarkanian couldn’t win a game of bingo if he was the only one in the church basement. Meanwhile, the Rosen campaign sits back, watches the mud fly, and takes copious notes for the general election campaign.
I am not predicting that this is going to set the standard for GOP Senators up for reelection in 2018. Heller is a special kind of situation, an unpopular incumbent with a primary opponent fueled more by vengeance against the Democratic challenger than a serious beef with Heller. But if we’re going to flip a seat in the Senate next year, this one has to be at the top of the list, and even though she may not be the perfect candidate, Rosen knows Tarkanian’s weak spots, and which nerves to poke. I wouldn’t be a bit surprised if she slyly poked her nose into the primary, try to tip the scales to Heller, and then hit him over the head with his final repeal vote in a state where Medicaid is a huge issue. Either way, it’s gonna be interesting.