It’s a big polling day out of Virginia as three separate polls have come out today regarding this year’s Governor’s race. First off, Roanoke College’s poll:
Republican Gubernatorial candidate Ed Gillespie has narrowed the gap, and he now trails Democrat Ralph Northam by only four percentage points (47%-43%), which is within the margin of error. Libertarian Cliff Hyra has the support of five percent of likely voters, and only five percent remain undecided, according to The Roanoke College Poll. The Institute for Policy and Opinion Research interviewed 596 likely voters in Virginia between September 16 and September 23 and has a margin of error of +4 percent.
The race for governor
Voters are also becoming more familiar with both major party candidates. Gillespie (34%-27%) and Northam (32%-25%) are viewed more favorably than unfavorably by voters. While 26 percent don't know enough about Gillespie to have an opinion about him, and 34 percent don't know enough about Northam, both figures are significantly lower than those in the August RC Poll.
Health care was named as the most important issue by 20 percent of likely voters. Economic issues (jobs, growth, etc.) are seen as most important by 15 percent of respondents with another 5 percent saying taxes and 1 percent referencing debt. Education was thought to be most important by 9 percent.
In the contest among two groups often thought to be pivotal in elections, Northam leads among ideological moderates (51%-32%), but Gillespie holds an insignificant lead among political Independents (42%-40%). Northam has the support of 85 percent of Democrats, while Gillespie is supported by 91 percent of Republicans. Liberals favor Northam (81%-9%) while Conservatives prefer Gillespie (77%-13%).
Then Public Policy Polling released their poll on behalf of Equality Virginia:
13% in the Governor race remain undecided while Lt. Governor nominee, Justin Fairfax (D. VA), leads Jill Vogel (R. VA) 43-37 and Attorney General Mark Herring (D. VA) leads John Adams (R. VA) 46-38. Click here for the full results.
And finally, after having the race tied back in July, Monmouth University’s Poll now has Northam leading Gillespie:
Democrat Ralph Northam currently holds a 5 point lead over Republican Ed Gillespie in the race for Virginia governor. The Monmouth University Poll finds that Northam has gained support in the western half of the Commonwealth, an area that is traditionally a GOP stronghold. The Democrat, who is a pediatric neurologist as well as the state’s current Lieutenant Governor, holds a significant advantage on being seen as better able to handle the issue of health care, which voters identify as one of their top concerns in this election.
Currently, 49% of likely voters support Northam and 44% support Gillespie. Libertarian candidate Cliff Hyra gets 2% of the vote and 4% are undecided. Two months ago, Monmouth found a tied race at 44% each for Northam and Gillespie, with Hyra at 3% and undecided at 9%. Compared to July, Northam has increased his support particularly among voters age 50 to 64 (up 12 points to 50%), women (up 7 points to 57%), and white voters (up 7 points to 43%).
“It appears that many previously undecided voters have moved into the Democrat’s camp,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.
There are some interesting regional differences in current vote intentions. Northam has a 17 point lead over Gillespie in Northern Virginia (56% to 39%) and a 9 point lead in the eastern part of the Commonwealth (49% to 40%), both of which are in line with July’s results. The race remains virtually tied in Central Virginia, with a negligible 49% to 48% result in Northam’s favor whereas Gillespie had a 2 point nominal edge in the prior poll. The Democrat has made up significant ground, though, in the western half of the Commonwealth where he trails the Republican by only 7 points (50% Gillespie and 43% Northam). This area is a traditional GOP stronghold where Gillespie held a sizable 18 point advantage just two months ago.
“Northam may not have quite the level of support in Northern Virginia as current governor Terry McAuliffe did in his 2013 race, but he has the potential to outperform the incumbent Democrat’s showing in the more conservative western part of the Commonwealth. The fact that Republicans once courted Northam to switch to their party probably doesn’t hurt his credibility with that electorate,” said Murray. Four years ago, McAuliffe won Northern Virginia by 22 points (58% to 36%) but he lost the western part of the Commonwealth by a nearly identical margin to Republican Ken Cuccinelli (36% to 57%).
In terms of issues driving this campaign, health care (22%) and jobs and the economy (22%) continue to be the predominant concerns for voters in this race. The next tier of important issues include education (14%), taxes (9%), and illegal immigration (9%).
Voter opinion is divided on which candidate would best handle the top two issues, but the Democrat has a much stronger advantage on health care than the Republican does on jobs and the economy. Specifically, when asked who is likely to do a good job on health care, 45% say only Northam, 29% say only Gillespie, 7% say both, and 12% say neither. When asked who is likely to do a good job on the economy, 38% say only Gillespie, 33% say only Northam, 14% say both, and 8% say neither.
“Anxiety about health care has become a predominant public concern across the country. If Washington Republicans manage to repeal Obamacare this week, they could end up handing Democrats a huge advantage in the Virginia governor’s race,” said Murray.
Northam also has a strong advantage on education, a perennial issue in the Commonwealth – 45% say he would do a good job on education compared to 28% who prefer Gillespie. Gillespie has a smaller advantage on taxes – 40% say he would do a good job compared to 33% who prefer Northam. There is no clear edge on the issue of illegal immigration – 36% prefer Gillespie and 35% prefer Northam. Likewise, handling the state budget is not a breakout issue for either candidate – 39% prefer Gillespie and 33% prefer Northam – and the same is true for transportation where 29% prefer Northam and 27% prefer Gillespie.
The Commonwealth has faced a soul-searching debate around what to do with Confederate monuments and voters are divided on who would better handle this issue – 31% say Northam, 29% say Gillespie, 7% say both, and 18% say neither. When it comes to the larger issue of race relations, though, Northam has the edge – 37% prefer the Democrat, 22% prefer the Republican, and 13% say both would do a good job, while nearly 1-in-5 Virginia voters (18%) say neither candidate would do a good job handling race relations.
We’re six weeks away so let’s seal the deal and have a big blue wave hit Virginia in November. Click below to donate and get involved with Northam and the whole Democratic ticket: