Man, I’m coming to love karma more and more these days. Back in 2016, so many Republicans, in states far flung from California made Nancy Pelosi a front and center issue in their campaign that she may as well have been running for President. Pelosi was painted as the ultimate giveaway liberal, and whomever their opponent was, he or she was cast in bronze as a “Pelosi stooge”.
Now, it appears that the shoe is on the other foot, and in a true Hitchcock plot twist, it’s not the Democrats doing it to the Republicans, it’s the Republicans doing it to themselves. Tuesday was a perfect example of what I’m talking about. Forget the fact that Luther Strange “bought” his Senate appointment by delaying and flubbing ethics and impeachment investigations on Robert “phone sex boy” Bentley. Judge (think Sammy Davis Jr on ‘Laugh in’) Roy Moore barely touched on that. Instead, he hammered over and over again about Strange being a McConnell Man. And the base ate it up.
Trump ran as an anti establishment, “shake up Washington”, “drain the swamp” candidate, and all the sheeple threw their pennies in the hat. Now, after only 8 months, Trump may as well be wearing red swimming trunks and have sunscreen on his nose, he’s the lifeguard for all of the crocodiles and other bottom feeders splashing around in the mud. And people have noticed.
One older Republican gentleman in Alabama, interviewed after the runoff, admitted that he had voted for Clinton years ago, and may well vote for Jones in December, breaking his loyalty to the GOP. Almost every other Moore voter rationalized their votes for him as not being “anti Trump”, but being an “anti McConnell” vote instead. Their venom for McConnell was almost boundless.
This is not only McConnell’s problem, but Paul Ryan’s too. Popularity polls for the gruesome twosome show them to have $0.99 sale stickers on them on a table at Tiffany’s. With the anti establishment fervor Trump has whipped up, Ryan and McConnell are his favorite chew toys, especially McConnell. McConnell doesn’t have to worry about a primary challenger next year, but Ryan does.
After Roy Moore, and Steve Bannon’s gloating about it, mark my words, far right mouth breathers are going to be coming out of the woodwork in 2018 to gun for the incumbents. And a commentator on MSNBC yesterday put it perfectly, “The GOP base these days loathe the GOP leaders in congress the way they used to loathe Obama”. This is not a good place to be going into a midterm election with a congress who is running out of post offices to rename, apparently the only thing they are capable of doing these days.
This is a huge problem for Ryan and McConnell for two reasons. The first is money and logistics. They are going to have to spend money on a plethora of primary fights in districts and states where they would not normally have to become entangled. The retirement of Bob Corker in Tennessee, and already closing on double digit members of the House stepping out, they are going to have to shepherd political newbies through the process, and more importantly, step in with cash due not only to a primary fight, but because these newcomers don’t have the established infrastructure and donor base that the incumbents did. Whomever wins, this will carry through to the general election as well. And the news is already reporting on a major donor revolt in the GOP due to the fact that they haven’t gotten healthcare repealed and their tax cut Christmas stocking yet.
The second problem is the current composition of the Republican party itself. And please, spare me that tired old “Republicans fall in line” saw in the comments. This ain’t your grandpa’s GOP anymore bubbie. Trump didn’t just win with a 30% conglomeration of goose steppers and cross burners. Trump tapped into a deep well of traditional Republican voters who were fed up with the inaction and broken promises of their own politicians. The Tea Party actually broke the ground on this discontent back in 2010. And this is a huge problem for Ryan and McConnell.
Here’s why. Trump supporters are going to vote for the Roy Moore’s out there every time. They blame the current GOP crop of being traitors to the Orange Julius’ grand vision. If the incumbent wins the primary, they will sit out the general. These people are not driven by the party platform, they are driven by the Trump vision. The current incumbents have not delivered on that vision, and they will make their wrath known by boycotting them. But if the RWNJ drooler-of-the-month-club candidate wins in the primary, will “traditional” Republicans come out and support someone whom they not only personally disagree with, but who isn’t even committed to their interests? Alabama may provide a clue, but maybe not by a Democratic victory, since it is such a deeply red state. A normal GOP candidate should win that race by double digits. If Moore can be held to low to mid single digits, that will be an indication that traditional Republican support won’t swing behind these radical candidates. This may not be enough to swing Alabama, but it sure as hell could swing more moderate states and districts.
No matter how you slice it, 2018 is going to one helluva lot of fun to watch unfold. We all saw what a treat it was to cover the Godsmack mosh pit that the 2016 GOP Presidential primary was. Now, imagine that same scenario being potentially played out in 8 states where GOP Senators are up for reelection, as well as an untold nmber of House districts nationwide. If you want to retire in 2019, take a tip from me, invest heavily in popcorn futures and breweries. You’ll thank me later.