Long story short, a new and very large study by Kalla and Broockman suggests several findings:
1. Political campaign spending doesn’t sway swing voters in general elections. It can and does in primaries and in a few special cases in generals, listed below:
a. If an opposing candidate in a general is perceived to hold a view that they actually don’t and it would change the mind of voters if they knew, like being perceived to be pro or anti abortion rights and the opposite being true… then spending on alerting those voters to the truth can result in beating that opponent. The lesson is to make sure swing voters never believe a “moderate” Republican holds a moderate view that they don’t and to hold all Republicans to account for their most extreme views.
b. Testing and micro targeting. If messaging is tested first and then tailored to a specific racial group, it may be affective. In this example, a pro LGBT rights mailer was found to resonate with blacks but not whites in a red state, so focusing spending only on blacks could be effective in winning a vote. The lesson here is to focus message spending where you already know it works rather than doubling down on groups not being convinced. More spending probably won’t change the lack of resonance with a particular racial group.
c. There’s some evidence that personal contact with people representing various wedge issues can sway swing voters… ie the sympathy engendered by meeting real people. For example, time spent with LGBT people seemed to affect swing voters in a more pro LGBT direction. This could mean that candidates should embody the issues they run on, so that voters feel more empathy with the candidate directly?
2. Rather than courting swing voters in general elections, the study suggests that focusing on base turnout, especially right before the election, is more effective in winning general elections.
3. Being perceived as outside the box and willing to break with one’s party on a key issue also goes a long way in winning.
Big picture, for Dems I think the study suggests winning will be about getting the liberal and minority base hyper activated to vote for candidates OF the people who embody the issues at the top of voters’ list of concerns. Beyond that it’s about micro targeting, message testing, and opposition research on key wedge issues.