The Virginia governors race will be in the spotlight on Tuesday, but don’t forget about NJ also! Our only hope of stopping a fascist/authoritarian takeover of the United States lies in our support of Democrats across the country. Anyone who doesn’t get out and vote in EVERY election for the Democrat running in the race, is truly supporting fascism. It REALLY is that dangerous!
If you live in Virginia or NJ, get your butt out and vote for Democrats all the way down the ballot, and drag any neighbor who will support Democrats with you.
The early vote in Virginia is showing above average interest in this governor’s race, but it’s still difficult to tell if democracy loving people are waking up to the dangers we all face, or if the Republican cult has motivated it’s zombie army of ignorance to get out and vote against anything democratic.
When it comes to early vote analysis my go to person is Michael McDonald over at Electproject.org. Normally, I don’t like posting a series of tweets, but he’s got some good graphs, so here is his take.
Manassas City has the largest early vote increase over 2013 of any Virginia locality: 428 in 2013/860 in 2017, or +201%. This city among the largest Latino communities in Virginia
Roanoke County has lowest early vote in Virginia compared to 2013: 2,219 in 2013/1, 487 in 2017 or only 67% of 2013 total. Cuccinelli won this county with 58% of the vote in 2013
Of the 25 Virginia localities that have not reached their 2013 early vote total, Cuccinelli won 17, McAulliffe won 8. All are outside Northern Virginia
So, what to make of all of this? First, the election is nowhere near over. Virginia is an excuse required state, with more generous excuses than other such states. About 5.4% of the 2013 vote was cast early. Presidential elections see higher early voting rate. Was 12.5% in 2016.
I expect a higher percentage of the vote cast early in 2017 than in 2013, with the increase primarily coming from Dem areas. Perennial questions: are Dems more engaged than Reps? Are Dems doing more early vote mobilization? Are they cannibalizing Election Day?
Partial answers might be found in the areas where early voting hasn't reached 2013 levels yet. There's more Rep-leaning localities among these places. So, I'll give Northam an edge based on early voting, which is where the poll averages are, but there's still much uncertainty
If you would like to see a comparison of the 2017 early turnout with the 2013 turnout for almost every county, Here's the place to go. We still need everyone who can, to go help with GOTV in any way you can.
All the polls show that the vast majority of people in the country support the Democratic party principles and most of their candidates. But almost all the election results show that these people are the least likely to vote. If we want to save our democracy, we don’t have to convince people our goal of a fairer and more prosperous America is right, we just have to convince them to vote!
RESIST!