According to Plural Vote’s election forecast of Virginia’s governor’s race, Democratic Lt. Gov Ralph Northam wins about 67.7% of the time, while Republican Ed Gillespie wins the remaining 32.3% of the time. In 75% of cases, the outcome of the election ranges between a 6.5-point Northam win to a narrow 1.3-point Gillespie win.
The most likely, median, scenario is a 2.6-point Northam win. In this median scenario, Plural Vote predicts that Democrat Ralph Northam will win 50% of the vote against Republican Ed Gillespie’s 47.3% and Libertarian Cliff Hyra’s 2.7%.
The model which produced these predictions took into account the past accuracy of off-year gubernatrial polling and a weighted polling average of public polls available in Virginia’s gubernatorial race. The weighted average is currently at a 2.6-point lead for Northam.
Over the last month, polls have for the most part indicated that the race was tightening, away from the strong level of support that was previously reported for Ralph Northam in Virginia. Since October 1st, the average poll with at least two editions has shown a shift in support towards Republican Ed Gillespie by 1.9 points in their latest poll.
POLLSTER |
LATEST POLL |
PREVIOUS POLL |
SHIFT IN SUPPORT |
FOX News |
Northam +5 |
Northam +7 |
Gillespie +2 |
The Polling Company (R) |
Northam +1 |
Gillespie +2 |
Northam +3 |
Monmouth University |
Northam +2 |
Gillespie +1 |
Northam +3 |
quinnipiac university |
Northam +9 |
Northam +17 |
Gillespie +8 |
emerson college |
Northam +3 |
Northam +5 |
Gillespie +2
|
Christopher Newport University |
Northam +6 |
Northam +5 |
Gillespie +1 |
Roanoke College |
TIE |
Northam +6 |
Gillespie +6 |
AVERAGE SHIFT |
|
|
Gillespie +1.9
|
That being said, while Virginia’s race will be tight, Northam is clearly the favorite. Notably, he rebounded within the past week. Our model showed Northam with a 59% probability of winning only a week ago.
On a side note, turnout levels are at record highs for an off-year gubernatorial race, which should comfort Democrats about their chances (if you happen to be operating under the assumption that higher turnout equals higher Democratic vote share). Also: don’t worry about the rain. In my opinion, it is foolish to subscribe to the idea that it would have any effect in this election, in either direction, since turnout levels are much more about poverty (higher income = higher turnout, generally), educational attainment (higher education level = higher turnout, generally), and geography than about politics.