SORRY original went up with some typos and flipped numbers -now fixed
7:02 UPDATE — MSNBC makes it “Too early to call” NOT “too close to call” — it will be Northam
UPDATE AT 6 PM WARNING - very heavy rain in Nova, heavier than elsewhere in state. Potential of depressing later turnout up in heavily Blue area of state
Biggest issue is healthcare at 37% with nothing else over 17% (sorry for original typo of 73)
McAuliffe has 53% approval rating versus 43% negative
84% of voters decided before last week
Keep Confederate Monuments is favored about 2-1 (60-36)
32 voted againstTrup while 16% voted for Trump and the rest it did not matter
28% liberal, 39% moderate 33% conservative
66% of voters over 45
30-20 Virginia economy getting better versus getting worse
based on what I am seeing, indicates a Democratic win
electorate tilts wealthy, but that is probably an artifact of higher incomes in NoVa, which is going to be heavily Democratic and anti-Trump
UPDATE — Larry Sabato commenting, criticizing Northam for not fighting back against Gillespie’s attack ad. However, I note how many people decided more than a week ago.
Steve Kornacki comments: notes Wh9te colgete graduates heavier than in 2016 43 versus 38, and white no college down 26 versus 29 % but careful, that is probably somewhat skewed by heavier voting in Nova
UPDATE
note the following tweet:
From what I have heard, the same is true in Arlington as well.
UPDATE:
Take a look at this blog post at Blue Virginia
and take a look at this tracking of Millennial voting
In general, except possible for the precinct at W&M, it looks like expanded voting by the time you get to 7 PM over 2013.
another UPDATE from twitter
So look at these tweets
and I note the talking heads on Meet The Press Daily are now talking about how NoVa is unique, even the gal from AEI. The issue is that national news is our local news and we are inundated with news about Trump. And reporters who have talked with voters are finding a strong vote against Trump.
To me the only question might be Lt. Gov — Jill Vogel is from not too far away, and there is a question whether some Republican women up here might vote for her as a way of compensating of voting against Trump. And her Dem opponent Justin Fairfax is Black and has never held elective office. The only Black ever elected statewide was Doug Wilder, and he was a state senator when he defeated Eddie Dalton, the widow of former Governor John Dalton, for Lt. Gov.
UPDATE note first the following tweet:
Then on turnout — somewhat down in AA precincts (McAuliffe had a track record with that community, in part bc of his connection with the Clintons)