NHK reports and AP has now confirmed that 11 trade ministers have reached an agreement to proceed with the TPP without the United States as a member state. Canada’s minister was the delay between the two news agencies’ agreement on the story. This announcement poetically comes just one day after Trump’s speech in the same location that the United States would not be taken advantage of in trade. This should be no surprise, the EU and the Obama administration basically did the same to the UK after Brexit.
While there was concern that the absence of the United States would kill the deal, it’s possible that some elements were easier to agree on without the US. Severe intellectual property rights rules, especially on pharmaceuticals, were primarily included to protect US companies over the concerns of other states. Japanese farmers also no longer need fear the cheesy-meaty-mushroomy might of Wisconsin, Texas, and the Pacific Coast.
This will no doubt embolden Mexico and Canada at NAFTA negotiations. Reduced cost of supply lines between Japan, Canada, and Mexico will no doubt also hurt the automobile industry in the United States (Mexico’s ties to the EU and Japan have already made it more competitive than the US) and similarly lines to Vietnam, the world’s kitchen, and food producers will hurt the food industry. The US has lost competitiveness by being left out of its own trade deal.
It would be irresponsible of me, however, to say “I told you so” without at least acknowledging that there were legitimate concerns with the TPP. One is the dispute resolution process, AKA the ISDS. While such a provision is necessary to allow US investors to invest with confidence in markets like Southeast Asia, the specific language of the TPP was loose. Also, while Trump’s accusation of currency manipulation by Japan and China are misguided at best, the lack of a provision against currency manipulation in the agreement was also a widely-held concern as the eventual inclusion of China has been an implicit goal from the start.