So yeah, some stuff has changed. A big theme is that I’m now a lot more bullish on a lot of suburban seats. All seats not listed in the table below are considered safe for the party that currently holds them. Bolded seats are currently held by Republicans, while italicized ones are currently held by Democrats. Explanations for my changes are below the fold. As always, feel free to quibble.
GOVERNORS
Likely D |
Lean D |
Tossup |
Lean R |
Likely R |
OR-GOV
PA-GOV
|
FL-GOV
MN-GOV
NM-GOV
RI-GOV
|
AK-GOV
CO-GOV (Tilt D)
CT-GOV (Tilt D)
IL-GOV (Tilt D)
MI-GOV (Tilt D)
ME-GOV
NV-GOV
OH-GOV (Tilt R)
WI-GOV
|
IA-GOV
MD-GOV
|
AZ-GOV
GA-GOV
KS-GOV
MA-GOV
NH-GOV
VT-GOV
|
SENATE
likely d |
lean d |
tossup |
lean r |
likely r |
ME-SEN*
MI-SEN
NJ-SEN
PA-SEN
VA-SEN
|
OH-SEN
MT-SEN
NV-SEN
WI-SEN
|
AZ-SEN
FL-SEN (Tilt D)
IN-SEN
MO-SEN
ND-SEN
WV-SEN
|
|
TX-SEN |
*Angus King’s semantic games aside, he’s a Democrat.
HOUSE
likely d |
lean d |
tossup |
lean r |
likely r |
CA-16
CA-24
FL-13
IA-2
IL-17
NH-2
NV-4
NY-3
PA-17
WI-3
|
AZ-1
CA-7
FL-7
FL-27
MN-7
NJ-5
VA-10
|
AZ-2
CA-10
CA-21
CA-25
CA-49 (Tilt D)
CO-6 (Tilt R)
FL-26
IA-1
IL-6
MI-11 (Tilt R)
MN-1 (Tilt R)
MN-2 (Tilt D)
MN-8 (Tilt D)
NE-2
NJ-2 (Tilt D)
NY-19
NH-1 (Tilt D)
NV-3 (Tilt D)
TX-23 (Tilt D)
WA-8
|
CA-39
GA-6
IA-3
KS-3
ME-2
MN-3
MT-AL
NY-22
NY-24
PA-6
PA-8
PA-15
TX-7
|
AK-AL
CA-45
CA-48
CO-3
FL-18
FL-25
IL-12
IL-13
IL-14
KS-2
KY-6
MI-6
MI-8
NC-2
NJ-3
NJ-7
NJ-11
NM-2
NY-1
NY-23
OH-1
PA-7
PA-16
TX-13
UT-4
WA-5
WI-1
WI-6
VA-2
VA-5
|
Safe R to Likely R:
NC-2: We got a good candidate here.
WA-5: Putting this one on the board as wavebait.
WI-6: I’ve been skeptical on this seat for quite a while, but between our strong challenger and wave potential, I think it’s at least time to put it on the board.
Likely R to Lean R:
CA-39: I’m getting more on board with the with the idea that we’re gonna romp in the suburbs next year.
TX-7: Okay, so internal polls are internal polls, but it’s still hard to get a D+10 result if the race isn’t at least somewhat for real.
Likely R to Tossup / Tilt D:
NJ-02: The LoBoindo retirement and the highly probably Van Drew run..
Tossup / Tilt R to Pure Tossup:
NY-19: Suburbia, and general feeling.
Tossup / Tilt D to Lean D:
NV-SEN: I went back and fourth on this, but ultimately I don’t see how Heller hangs on unless the environment improves for Republicans.
VA-10: Did you guys see Northam’s margins in this district?!?!?!