Here’s a very interesting twitter thread from:
@lilybatch
Professor of Law & Public Policy at @nyulaw. Former Deputy Director @WhiteHouse NEC; former Chief Tax Counsel @SenateFinance.
I’m getting >$300B from fact that provision appears to repeal R&D credit, which costs ~$113B, and participation exemption, which costs $216B. See JCT estimates at
And corporate AMT provision does a lot more than this, so even $300B is probably low-balling. 3/5
Before corp AMT amendment, Senate bill raised taxes on individuals by $82B and cut taxes on business by $48B in 2027. After amendment, could conceivably raise taxes on both, incl. US MNEs and manufacturers, though need revised JCT estimates to know for sure. 4/5
Fact that Rs have to go to conference constrains their options, especially if Collins, Flake or others have second thoughts after seeing more evidence that commitments they received (e.g., Alexander-Murray, DACA) are not going to be honored. 5/5
If she’s right, the fascist approach to fake legislation may have screwed this up royally. If I’m reading this right, I think this may force the conference committee to make a major change to the tax bill. One last ditch option they had was to take the Senate bill and have Ryan force it down the throats of his fellow cult members in a take it or leave it move so it wouldn’t have to go back to the Senate and have another vote. I don’t see how the house would vote for it knowing there’s an extra $300B in corporate taxes they didn’t expect.
Let’s hope professor Batchelder is right and they have to go back and do this all over again. This could also delay it enough where the Alabama election next week takes on new importance. Keep those phones ringing!
RESIST!