Special Elections: Look out! Democrats just chalked up a fronking yuge upset in Wisconsin on Tuesday night. Johnny Longtorso:
Iowa HD-06: This was a hold for the Republicans. Republican Jacob Bossman defeated Democrat Rita DeJong by a 56-44 margin. This seat went 62-33 for Donald Trump in 2016 and 54-44 for Mitt Romney in 2012.
South Carolina HD-99: This was also a Republican hold. Republican Nancy Mace defeated Democrat Cindy Boatwright by a 57-43 margin. This seat went 58-35 for Trump in 2016 and 66-32 for Romney in 2012.
Wisconsin SD-10: Democrats continued their string of special election pickups with this seat. Democrat Patty Schachtner defeated Republican Adam Jarchow by a 55-45 margin. This seat went 55-38 for Trump in 2016 and 52-46 for Romney in 2012.
Wisconsin AD-58: Republicans held on to this one. Republican Rick Gundrum defeated Democrat Dennis Degenhardt by a 57-43 margin. This seat went 67-28 for Trump in 2016 and 68-31 for Romney in 2012.
A few thoughts here:
1) All four of these races took place on deep red turf, and even in the three elections Democrats lost, they once again outperformed recent presidential results by large margins, continuing a trend that began immediately after Donald Trump won office in 2016. Indeed, in that big Wisconsin Senate race in the 10th District, Schachtner outperformed Trump’s margin-of-victory by a giant 28 points—despite getting outspent at least two-to-one.
2) The Wisconsin result also shrunk the GOP's majority to 18-14, with one vacancy. That helps inch the chamber closer to flippable territory for 2018. What's more, that other vacant district, the 1st, is also held by Republicans and has similar stats in the last two presidential races to the 10th. Ordinarily, you wouldn't expect a seat like that to be competitive, but see point #1.
3) This is now the 15th legislative seat Democrats have flipped in a special election in the Trump era, and the 34th overall when you include the regularly scheduled elections that took place in Virginia and New Jersey in November. The portents look good indeed.