I updated my Senate ratings last week, after starting the year with a political primer. Now it’s time to dig into the governor’s ratings, with a few changes from last time and an outlook for overall national control and implications for the 2020 redistricting cycle. So let’s get started!
Safe D (3): Hawaii, New York, California
Our only three safe Democratic states are three of the biggest blue bastions. In New York, Andrew Cuomo is cruising to re-election, while in California and Hawaii, it is rather likely that the main contenders will be Democrats. Hawaii’s incumbent Governor David Ige is in big trouble, especially after the false alarm missile alert. He’s facing a tough primary against US Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (HI-01) and the Republican side is empty in this deep blue state. In California, the top two primary system that produced a Democrat vs. a Democrat for the open senate seat in 2016 is likely to produce that same matchup for the open governor race, with Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa being the favorites to advance.
Likely D (1): Oregon
Incumbent Kate Brown, who won a special election to take the governorship in 2016, is back for reelection will most likely be facing Knute Buehler, a representative from the Oregon House of Representatives. He’s not exactly the top candidate ever and Brown won in 2016 rather comfortably. In a much better Democratic year, it’s hard to see her losing but I can’t quite call it a safe seat yet.
Lean D (7): Colorado, Illinois, Maine, Minnesota, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island
(italics denote takeovers)
Colorado: Open (Hickenlooper)
I’m one of the only people who has this race in the Lean D column, as opposed to tossup. Here’s my rationale: Colorado is a Democratic leaning state that Hillary Clinton won by 5 points. This is a pro-D environment. That right there should give the Dems a starting edge. John Hickenlooper, the incumbent governor is a Democrat, and he has solid approval ratings. All of those factors point to it being Lean D. What about the candidates? Both sides have good names, With the GOP being led by Attorney General Cynthia Coffman, and the Democrats by US Rep. Jared Polis (CO-02), along with ex-State Treasurer Cary Kennedy. So with both sides having above average candidates, the built in fundamentals point this to the Lean D column, though it could very easily shift over time in either direction.
Illinois: Bruce Rauner
Rauner is a very rich man. But he’s also a very unpopular man, facing a primary challenge from his right and a long list of Democratic challengers. He sports low approval ratings in this blue state, making him the single most vulnerable incumbent governor in the United States. The most likely Democratic nominee is businessman JB Pritzker, who has the wealth to match Rauner penny for penny and save Democrats fundraising money needed. None of the major ratings sites have this as a Lean D, but I just don’t see how money can save Rauner at this point. Maybe things will change, but the poll numbers we have about him and the national environment suggests that not even a few hundred million dollars can prevent a Rauner defeat.
Maine: Open (LePage)
Last week, Sabato’s Center for Politics moved this race to Lean D and I agree with that rating. US Senator Susan Collins has ruled out running for Governor in this race and it leaves the GOP with a decent but not great field. Mary Mayhew, who served in not-very-popular-outgoing-incumbent Paul LePage’s cabinet is the favorite of LePage, but her baggage in associated with the controversial governor could be an issue in the general election. Mike Thibodeau and Ken Fredette are the GOP party leaders in the State Senate and House, respectively, and should be formidable challengers for the nomination. On the Democratic side, Attorney General Janet Mills is the favorite for the nomination and she is definitely the strongest candidate for either party in this race. And that fact, combined with the national environment, LePage’s controversial status, and Maine’s nature as a blue leaning state that Obama won by 15 points in 2012 makes the Democrats the favorites to take over Maine’s governorship.
Minnesota: Open (Dayton)
Mark Dayton is exiting after two terms as Governor of Minnesota, and the former Senator proved to be a legislatively successful and popular Governor, notions that should help the Democratic Party’s quest to hold on to the Governor’s mansion. The Republicans look like they’re going to run Jeff Johnson, Hennepin County Commissioner and the 2014 nominee who ran a solid, albeit losing, campaign against Dayton. The Democrats have a few viable options, including the strongest one in the race, US Rep. Tim Walz (MN-01), who vacated his vulnerable House seat to chase this office. Former Mayor of St. Paul Chris Coleman and State Auditor Rebecca Otto are also candidates who could feasibly win a general election. The popular outgoing incumbent + pro-D environment + unpopular President Trump in Minnesota + stronger D candidates means that Democrats are favored in this race.
New Mexico: Open (Martinez)
New Mexico is increasingly getting bluer as it gets more diverse and as a result, Democrats are looking to complete the trifecta and take unified control of the state government after 8 years of Republican Governor Susana Martinez. And at the moment they are the favorites to do so. More than likely it will be US Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham (NM-01) taking on US Rep. Steve Pearce (NM-02), and in that race, Grisham is the favorite. Pearce ran for Senate back in 2008 and his hard right views did not go over well, resulting in a slaughter. Will this statewide run go better? I’m doubtful, especially against a strong opponent and in a year where the winds will be heavily at his face. I would be surprised if the Democrats don’t flip this seat.
Pennsylvania: Tom Wolf
This is one of the 5 most important governor’s races by redistricting implications and Democrats have to like their position. Tom Wolf won in 2014 despite it being a strong GOP year overall because of the unpopularity of then-incumbent Tom Corbett. Wolf is facing a GOP legislature thanks to a brutal gerrymander but he expanded Medicaid and his approval ratings are middling. But most importantly, it is good enough to make him the favorite for reelection. His top opponent seems to be either State Senator Scott Wagner or Speaker of the State House Mike Turzai, who are okay but not great and there is some baggage on Wagner. One thing that is important to note about this rate is this recent Politico article, talking about how Republicans are approaching these gubernatorial elections. Whenever a party is defending a lot of seats, like the Republicans are here, there is only so much money to go around and most of that goes to seats that are being defended, not ones being targeted, like Pennsylvania. And thus the article notes that one of the first offensive seats that seems to have fallen by the wayside is Pennsylvania, with Republicans already skeptical of their own chances. Therefore, Wolf is the favorite and this is a race Democrats need to win in order to un-gerrymander both the state legislature and the congressional maps in the 2020 cycle.
Rhode Island: Gina Raimondo
This is a rather slow developing race and the incumbent Democrat Raimondo hasn’t even announced if she’s running for re-election. She won a three way race with only 40.7% of the vote in 2014 and her political position has never really strengthened, with still tepid approval ratings. That said, the Republican field is slow developing, with Allan Fung (the 2014 nominee and Mayor of Cranston) back for another swing, along with Patricia Morgan (State House Minority Leader). The Democratic side is mostly still waiting to see if Raimondo runs again and this race is still sort of in limbo. This is one of the best Republican pickup opportunities, but the nature of the state as a D+10 state and the national environment will make it an uphill climb despite state level dynamics, so we’ll leave it in Lean D.
Tossup (6): Alaska, Connecticut, Florida, Michigan, Nevada, Ohio
Alaska: Bill Walker
Walker is the only independent governor in the country, though I typically count him as a Democrat because he merged his campaign with the Democrats in 2014 en route to defeating Sean Parnell. Fast forward to 2018, and Walker’s approval numbers aren’t great and he’s in a rather tenuous position. The real question is whether or not he will continue to have support from Democrats, or if they will put up their own candidate. Former US Senator Mark Begich has been rumored as a potential candidate, though I bet that most people on this site would prefer him to pass and instead take another stab at his old Senate seat in 2020. But he’s been about the only name mentioned on the Democratic side, so it seems possible that Walker will be the guy. The Republicans have a few former state politicians, including Mike Chenault (former Speaker of the Alaska House) and Charlie Huggins (former State Senate President) who will give Walker a run for his money. Right now this is a pretty clear tossup due to the vulnerable poll numbers for Walker combined with candidate uncertainty. All things considered, this may be the GOP’s best shot to flip a governorship in 2018.
Connecticut: Open (Malloy)
Incumbent Democratic Governor Dan Malloy is not running for a third term due to his pretty horrific approval ratings, brought on by unpopular tax increases that failed to fix the state’s budget deficit. Thus, in theory, his unpopularity should be a hindrance to Democrat’s holding this seat and while that is true, the nature of the environment will keep Democrats in the game in their quest to hang onto the Governorship. The Republican candidates include a few mayors (Mark Boughton and Mark Lauretti) and a few former statewide losers (Peter Lumaj and David Walker) which amounts to a decent but not great selection of candidates. Democrats have had rather sluggish recruiting as well, with Joe Ganim, Mayor of Bridgeport, being one of the top potential candidates. Perhaps the biggest wild card is Ned Lamont, who has considered entering the Democratic primary. You may recall Lamont as the guy who primaried Joe Lieberman back in 2006, yet then lost to Lieberman’s third party campaign in the general election. Altogether, this is a tossup due to blase recruiting on both sides and the competing external factors (unpopular incumbent D vs. pro-D environment/blue state).
Florida: Open (Scott)
This is another hugely important race, as Democrats are trying to win the Florida governor’s mansion for the first time since 1994, when Lawton Chiles beat Jeb(!) Bush. This race holds big redistricting implications, so Democrats will go all out to try and win it. There are two very interesting primaries going on in this race, and since the Florida primary is not until late August, it will go on for awhile. On the Republican side, former US Rep. Adam Putnam, who has been serving as Florida Commissioner of Agriculture since 2011, has been waiting for this opportunity for a long time. He was the clear frontrunner until President Trump waded into the race and endorsed US Rep. Ron DeSantis (FL-06). There are other names but this primary figures to be another Luther Strange vs. Roy Moore, not because DeSantis or Putnam are as terrible of people as Roy Moore, but in the sense that it will be an important GOP primary playing out under the influence of a presidential endorsement. On the Democratic side, former US Rep. Gwen Graham is the favorite, as she’s been aided by Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum not running a very good campaign. However the Mayor of Miami Beach Philip Levine has complicated things thanks to his immense wealth. Once the primaries get settled, it will be a short general election campaign, albeit one that will certainly see outrageous amounts of spending from both parties and anyone can win, which is why it’s a tossup.
Michigan: Open (Snyder)
After 8 years of Rick Snyder, Michigan Democrats see an opportunity to reclaim Lansing’s highest post. Their leading candidate is former State Senate Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer, although grassroots progressives love doctor Abdul El-Sayed. Meanwhile, no-name businessman Shri Thanedar keeps pouring money into campaign ads even though he has no hope of winning. In all likelihood, it will be Whitmer representing the D’s and she’s certainly a strong enough candidate to win. The Republicans are set to have a bitter primary, between Snyder’s handpicked successor, Lieutenant Governor Brian Calley, against Trump-favorite Bill Schuette, who has wanted to be governor for a long time. Schuette had been the clear favorite in the polls, but Calley has seen some tightening, trailing just 30-19% with a ton of undecideds in the most recent one. Snyder’s unpopularity will be a weight on the Republican ticket, as will the unpopularity of the president in that state, and the national environment, but because both sides have legitimate candidates in a swingy state, this is a tossup.
Nevada: Open (Sandoval)
Popular centrist governor Brian Sandoval is on his way out from Nevada, leaving Democrats with an opportunity to complete the trifecta out in the Silver State. While much focus will be on Nevada’s Senate election, this is also an important race. The Republicans have Attorney General Adam Laxalt as the clear favorite for the nomination, and he is a formidable foe, no matter how flukey his win might have been back in 2014. The Democratic side has a battle between a pair of Clark County Commissioners, Steve Sisolak and Chris Giunchigliani. Most see Sisolak as the far more electable statewide of the two, so Democrats will want to make sure it is Sisolak who gets the nomination. We only have one poll of a Laxalt-Sisolak showdown, and it showed Laxalt ahead. However, that was back in May 2017 and it was by a right leaning pollster, so take that with the entire carton of salt. Even though Sandoval will boost Laxalt, the D-leaning nature of the state (PVI D+1) and the national environment push this clearly into the tossup column.
Ohio: Open (Kasich)
I’m just about the only ratings person who sees this race as a tossup rather than Lean R, but I feel confident in putting it here. First off, this is an open seat, meaning there is no incumbent advantage, since John Kasich is term limited. Second, while Ohio has a slight Republican lean (PVI of R+3, historically bluer), the national environment negates any partisan lean that may exist. Third, both sides have legitimate nominees. On the Republican side, the clear favorite is current Attorney General and former US Senator Mike DeWine, who has held just about every office possible outside of Governor and dog catcher. DeWine named fellow candidate and Ohio Secretary of State Jon Husted as his running mate in an attempt to consolidate the field of candidates. US Rep. Jim Renacci (OH-16) has dropped out and switched to running for Senate, leaving DeWine’s only competitor to be Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor who has trailed in the polls. At the moment, this is DeWine’s primary to lose. On the Democratic side, things are significantly loonier, with a whole bunch of candidates. The frontrunner is former Director of the CFPB Richard Cordray, who has named former US Rep. Betty Sutton as his running mate. But he faces competition from Dennis Kucinich, an ex-House member and Fox News talking head, and State Senator Joe Schiavoni. And then the craziest of all is Bill O’Neill, a justice on the Ohio Supreme Court who published this during the #MeToo movement. It’s a mess of candidates, but Cordray remains the favorite on the Democratic side. Thus for all of the aforementioned reasons, this is a tossup.
Lean R (8): Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Maryland, New Hampshire, Oklahoma, Wisconsin
Arizona: Doug Ducey
This is a rating change from last time and beginning a theme with these Lean R races, this is one that could very easily fall into the tossup column if things continue on a Blue Wave path. Doug Ducey is not a governor who most people consider to be in any kind of trouble. However, Trump is underwater in approval in the state of Arizona, and Ducey’s numbers are dicey (yes, nice rhyme). There isn’t really a top tier challenger out there, but a recent PPP poll showing Ducey vs. Arizona State Professor David Garcia had Garcia leading 43-42! Whether it’s Garcia or State Senator Steve Farley, this race has the potential to be a dark horse race that unexpectedly becomes a Democratic pickup. Ducey has the edge for now but he needs to be careful.
Georgia: Open (Deal)
Speaking of dark horse races that signify a rating change, welcome to Georgia. Georgia was one of only a handful of states that saw a swing towards the Democrats in 2017. Trump won the state 51-46, which should make an open seat race in that state competitive and most prognosticators have underrated the possibility of Georgia being a key gubernatorial race. The Republicans have a handful of establishment names running, including Lieutenant Governor Casey Cagle and Secretary of State Brian Kemp, while the Democrats have an intriguing battle between two Staceys, Stacey Abrams (House Minority Leader) and Stacey Evans (State Representative). A recent poll shows Trump’s approval rating in Georgia being appallingly bad, and while that may be a tad extreme, most all polls have shown him underwater in the Peach State, suddenly raising the possibility that this seat could become a tossup. It has the chance to, but for now, the ancestral state lean leaves this state in the Lean R column.
Iowa: Kim Reynolds
The Hawkeye State had a huge swing towards Trump in the 2016 election, leaving many to wonder whether if it’s legitimate or temporary. Recent polling seems to indicate that it was temporary, with Ann Selzer’s recent Iowa poll showing Trump at 35/60 approval to disapproval in Iowa, left of the nation as a whole. PPP has shown it closer, but since Ann Selzer is perhaps the best state pollster in the country, her word is the gospel in my eyes. So how does that affect Reynolds? That same poll showed her pretty popular, at 51/30 but the interesting note is that 49% of voters in that same poll also think it’s time for a new governor. Meanwhile, that same PPP poll that was more favorable to Trump showed Reynolds at 39/47. Taken together, these polls suggest that Trump is going to be a drag on Republicans in Iowa (like in almost every state) and that Reynolds’ position is not secure. The Democratic primary to challenge Reynolds is the very definition of an absolute mess, with basically every Democrat in Iowa running. It is quite likely that no one will get a majority in the primary and the nomination will head to the state convention. I think the most intriguing candidate is young State Senator Nate Boulton, who is just 37 years old and could create a good contrast to the 58 year old Reynolds. Whoever the Democratic nominee is, this race should be closeish and there is definitely a good chance that this race could end up in the tossup column (or worse) when it’s all said and done.
Kansas: Open (Brownback)
I’ve documented this story several times before. Sam Brownback was elected governor in 2010 and proceeded to go full steam ahead with a very Tea Party economic agenda. And it destroyed his state, so much so that Kansas Republicans turned against the very conservative state legislators, primarying several of them last fall and the new coalition of moderate Republicans and Democrats shoved tax increases to fix the state’s decimated budget down Brownback’s throat, over his veto. In the process, Brownback became one of America’s most hated governors and tried to run away to be “US Ambassador At-Large for International Religious Freedom”, which isn’t really a thing. But, the Senate didn’t get around to hearing his nomination in 2017 which means he has to be renominated and it’s not clear if that’s going to happen, and so Brownback remains governor. All of that said, he is ineligible to run for re-election and the whole Tea Party agenda is a major drag on the Republican ticket. This creates an opportunity for Democrats to seize the governorship in a traditionally very red state. They’ve recruited a few decent names, including former Wichita Mayor Carl Brewer. The problem is, the 4 candidates all raised far less money than the main Republicans (Lt. Gov. Jeff Coyler and Secretary of State/Worst Elected Official Ever Kris Kobach), which should be concerning to Democrats. Meanwhile the wildcard in all of this is wealthy businessman Greg Orman. Orman ran for Senate as an independent in 2014 and led many polls down the stretch before far underperforming his polls and losing by about 10 points to Pat Roberts. Orman promised to caucus with “the majority party” during that race and his history of party affiliation is mixed, having donated to Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Nancy Boyda, Al Franken, and Harry Reid, but also Todd Akin and Scott Brown. Democrats dropped out from running in 2014 and coalesced behind Orman in 2014 and I can’t help but wonder if the same will happen in 2018 given the sluggish numbers for the Democratic candidates. If they can get a few promises from Orman to move a bit to the left, especially concerning things like Medicaid Expansion, it wouldn’t shock me if it happened. As for now, this race Leans Republican because of uncertainty with the challengers, but this race could easily move either direction.
Maryland: Larry Hogan
When I last did my gubernatorial ratings, I told the story of poor Lincoln Chafee. Chafee was the Rockefeller Republican Senator from Rhode Island who did everything he could to distance himself from the unpopular George W. Bush in 2006 but was still swept away in the Blue Wave of that year simply because he had that R next to his name and he was in a very blue state. I compared his case to Larry Hogan in Maryland and I feel it still stands. Hogan is a very popular governor, shown through stellar approval rating numbers. Yet you get the sense that no matter how much Democrats in Maryland may be okay with the centrist/pro-choice/pro-environment Hogan, that R next to his name in a year like 2018 and a state like Maryland could be enough to sweep him away. There are a lot of Democrats lined up to challenge Hogan and while he has led everyone of them in the polls, he has consistently been getting sub-50% in those polls, which is a sign that there’s a lot of undecideds that could make this race suddenly a lot closer. For now, Hogan is the favorite, but if he loses, it will probably be the fault of the environment, not his own doing.
New Hampshire: Chris Sununu
The Granite State is one of just two states to hold its gubernatorial elections every two years (the other being Vermont) and it is very much subject to the violent swings of partisan winds. Not as much as its state legislature, which swings all the time, but it still feels the political current quite a bit. Sununu pulled off a big upset in 2016, as he trailed Democratic nominee Colin Van Ostern by quite a bit in the polls throughout the fall but eked out a 48.8%-46.6% win. Since Sununu has barely been in office a year, it’s tough to judge him, part of the reason why this state is so subject to the partisan winds. Sununu’s approval ratings are pretty high so far but again, how much is that a honeymoon period? Tough to tell. Democrats don’t have any great candidates now, but many hope Van Ostern will give it another run. Sununu starts as the favorite, but this could easily move into the tossup column over time.
Oklahoma: Open (Fallin)
If you remember what I said about Kansas’ budget situation after a Tea Party experiment, the same is true in Oklahoma, just to a lesser degree. There hasn’t been nearly the same amount of backlash, but the incumbent governor is also very unpopular and some of the most extreme legislative special election swings in 2017 were in Oklahoma, suggesting a Democratic opening. The Republicans have quite a few faces running, including Oklahoma City Mayor Mick Cornett, Lieutenant Governor Todd Lamb, and State Auditor Gary Jones. The Democrats’ main candidate seems to be former Attorney General Drew Edmondson, who was a 4 term statewide elected politician and is thus a pretty formidable candidate. The state’s excessive red lean, combined with a situation that isn’t quite as dire as Kansas’ leaves this race in Lean R, but like all these others, it has the potential to move columns over and be a Democratic pickup.
Wisconsin: Scott Walker
Scott Walker is one of the most divisive and polarizing politicians not named Donald Trump. The simple fact is that he’s a tough out, given that Democrats have tried thrice and failed thrice to oust him via elections. That said, because he’s Scott Walker, the election is guaranteed to be close because so many people hate him. It’s also worth noting that none of the previous attempts to remove him came in an environment at all like 2018 and in fact two of those were quite the opposite (2010 and 2014). Therefore you can argue that this will be Walker’s toughest fight yet, and there’s certainly no shortage of candidates to take him on, with 14 people listed here. There isn’t an obvious frontrunner, though a recent poll showed Wisconsin State Superintendent Tony Evers leading the primary. Until a Democratic candidate emerges and polling becomes a bit clearer, this race will stay in Lean R, but I would be shocked if it doesn’t end up in tossup, and due to redistricting implications, this is a huge race that will likely warrant massive spending.
Likely R (3): Massachusetts, Tennessee, Vermont
Tennessee: Open (Haslam)
Tennessee Governor Bill Haslam is on his way out and as a result, we have two competing forces. On one hand, we have Tennessee’s nature as a very red state and Haslam’s solid approval numbers. On the other hand, we have 2018’s national environment and Tennessee’s history of switching Governors between Republican and Democratic every time since 1971. US Rep. Diane Black (TN-06) appears to be the favorite on the Republican side, though Speaker of the State House Beth Harwell is a contender. Karl Dean, a former Mayor of Nashville appears to be a formidable foe on the Democratic side. For now this is pretty likely R, but not enough to be a safe race.
Massachusetts & Vermont (Charlie Baker & Phil Scott)
I grouped these two together because they are similar stories: very centrist Republicans in blue states, like Hogan in Maryland, but in slightly better standings and with less competition. They too have very high approval ratings and look pretty safe now. The Chafee story still applies and maybe they could become endangered, but for now, they look like they’ll be alright.
Safe R (8): Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Nebraska, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Wyoming
All of these races are not currently competitive in any way. That said, some are more intriguing than others. While I don’t anticipate Arkansas, Texas, or Nebraska ever being close, it wouldn’t shock me if South Dakota, Idaho, or South Carolina got interesting at one point in time. But for now they remain here.
Conclusion:
So what does this all amount to? If you read my Senate ratings, I talked repeatedly about how bad the map is for Democrats, and how it’s an obstacle to a wave wreaking havoc. This gubernatorial map is the exact opposite, with the GOP being in a ton of trouble and the Democrats on a massive offensive. For example, Democrats are protecting just one state with a Republican PVI*, while the Republicans are trying to protect 7 states with a Democratic PVI, one state with an EVEN PVI (Wisconsin), and several classic swing states with soft red PVI’s (Florida, Ohio, Iowa). And outside of that, governor’s races have state level political dynamics that can but deep blue and deep red states in play (Connecticut, Oklahoma, Kansas).
All in all, the Republicans are going to lose governorships. The question is how many. A good night for the Republicans is a net loss of maybe 4, with the worst case scenario being a staggeringly terrible -12 or -13. Even a loss of 8 would be catastrophic, especially to the Republican gerrymanders, which brings us to the larger implications. The winners of these governorships will hold lots of redistricting power, as they will be in office during the next round of redistricting and will have the ability (in most states) to veto any particular GOP gerrymander. This means states like Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, whose gerrymanders have proved so effective at costing Democrats seats at the congressional and state legislative level could be no more and suddenly it will be a lot easier for Democrats to win the US House in the 2020s. Thus those five states are by far the most important gubernatorial races this fall, and as Kyle Kondik argues in this piece, you can say (rightly) that the success of the parties in these elections can be measured alone by how well they do in those five races.