Morning Call/Muhlenberg have a very interesting poll out from Pennsylvania’s 15th Congressional district (home of the retiring Charlie Dent). In their press release, they note:
Voters in Pennsylvania’s 15th Congressional District backed President Donald Trumpand U.S. Rep. Charlie Dent, both Republicans, in the 2016 election. But heading into this year’s midterm contest, a majority now say they disapprove of the president’s job performance — and they’re closely divided on which party should replace their retiring congressman.
This is actually really good news. Forget about the court-ordered redistricting which will change this district, and for the moment consider how PA15 fits into the 2016 dynamic. It is, on average, to the right of Pennsylvania as a whole. Dent (R) won it by 21 (and he's retiring) and Trump won it by 7 (compared to 1 point statewide). Now, Trump is way underwater in the district: -14, while Sen. Casey (D) and Gov. Wolf (D) are at +5 and +3 respectively (pretty good considering the district lean). Dems also lead by 3 in the generic ballot (again, in a district that's at least 6 points more conservative as the state as a whole). Small sample (418 registered voters, so also likely underestimating our enthusiasm gap), so big error bars, but nevertheless, a very promising sign.