MS-Sen: Candidate filing closed Thursday for Mississippi's June 5 primary, and the Clarion-Ledger has a list of federal candidates here. Note that there will be a June 26 runoff in contests where no one takes a majority in the first round.
Because there was a late-breaking development in the Democratic Senate primary, we'll start there. State Rep. Omeria Scott, who has represented the Laurel area since 1993, entered the race on the final day of qualifying. Days before, national Democrats had successfully recruited state House Minority Leader David Baria, who represents a conservative Gulf Coast seat. Venture capitalist Howard Sherman, who is the husband of actress Sela Ward, also entered the race late. Scott is the only black candidate in a race where most of the Democratic electorate is black, which could give her an edge. Mississippi is a very red state, but Democrats hope they'll have an opening if the GOP primary goes off the rails.
That brings us to the main event. Sen. Roger Wicker is seeking another term, and he has the support of Donald Trump, Gov. Phil Bryant, and much of the national GOP establishment. State Sen. Chris McDaniel, a tea partier who is anything but an ally to these groups, announced just before the filing deadline that he'd challenge Wicker in the primary.
McDaniel ran against Sen. Thad Cochran in the 2014 primary and narrowly lost the runoff in an upset. McDaniel never conceded that race, and he launched his new campaign declaring, "We haven’t forgotten what they did in ’14." McDaniel also argued that, even though Trump was supporting his opponent, McDaniel was the true Trump ally. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell didn't want someone as hostile as McDaniel in the Senate in 2014 and he doesn't want him there now, and his allies will likely spend whatever they need to if they're afraid he has a chance in June. Team Red is also afraid that McDaniel, a former far-right radio host who has a long history of misogynistic language and long ties to neo-Confederate groups, could be flawed enough to give Democrats a chance in November if he's their nominee.
However, the Wicker-McDaniel fight may not come to pass after all. Cochran has been in ill health for the last year, and there's plenty of speculation that he'll step down soon, which would prompt a special election. McDaniel himself didn't rule out switching races if this came to pass, and his chances would probably be better in a special than against Wicker. In Mississippi special elections, all the candidates run on one officially nonpartisan ballot, and if no one takes a majority, the two candidates with the most votes advance to the general. Bryant would appoint someone to this seat if it opened up, but if McDaniel could harness enough anti-establishment Republicans, he'd have a good chance to blow past that appointed incumbent and reach the general election with a Democrat. But there's still no guarantee that Cochran will leave the Senate this year, so McDaniel is still going to need to plan to face Wicker.
While McDaniel came very close to beating Cochran four years ago, Wicker looks like a much stronger opponent. Cochran had always been a reliably conservative senator, but his long tenure, occasional bipartisan actions, and success getting appropriations for his state made him a tempting target. Cochran also hadn't faced a real fight in decades and started with little money, and he never really seemed to understand the direction his party was heading in. But Wicker, who chaired the NRSC during the last cycle, has been aggressively raising money, and he has the Trump seal of approval. McDaniel will also have far less time to organize a campaign against Wicker than he did against Cochran, though he does have a well-funded super PAC in his corner already.
A little-known Republican named Richard Boyanton is also running, so if the primary is unexpectedly close, this race could go to a runoff. Back in 2014, a different little-known third candidate named Thomas Carey won just 1.5 percent of the vote, but that was enough to prevent either McDaniel or Cochran from securing a majority. McDaniel had led the incumbent in the first round, and if Carey hadn't been on the ballot, he would have won the GOP nomination. Instead, Cochran used the three-week runoff to reach out to African Americans and convince them to vote in the GOP primary, and the rest is history.