A few days ago, CNN released a poll showing Democrats up by 16 in the Congressional preference poll, and there was great rejoicing, and diaries were written.
Since then, there have been several other polls released, two of which showed Democrats up by … 2. And nary a diary about them.
Here, then, is the 538 weighted average (aggregate) poll: link. As of right now, Democrats are up by +8.8. That’s enough to flip the House; it’s probably not enough to flip the Senate given how tough the map is; Democrats are defending ~3x as many seats as Republicans, and almost all of theirs are “safe” — note the quotes, as Roy Moore shows nothing is safe.
Let’s be honest. A single poll that shows a big lead for Democrats should not get multiple diaries while single polls that show small leads are ignored. Watch the trend in the aggregate, and hope for a bigger margin.
Oh, and one thing about all the aggregated polls: they may not be accounting for new voters energized to come out, and they also may not be accounting for vigorous voter suppression. Take nothing for granted, and don’t stop hoping.