TX-02: The GOP primary to succeed retiring Rep. Ted Poe in this 52-43 Trump seat went in an unexpected direction on Tuesday. State Rep. Kevin Roberts claimed first place with 33 percent, which wasn't the surprise. Roberts was the only elected official on the ballot in this suburban Houston seat, he had the support of the NRA and Harris County Judge Ed Emmett (a position akin to county executive), and he spent considerably more money in the first 45 days of 2018 (which the FEC defines as the "pre-primary period") than all but one of his foes.
What was unexpected is that retired Navy SEAL Dan Crenshaw appears to have edged major GOP fundraiser Kathaleen Wall for the second spot in the May 22 runoff. With all precincts reporting, Crenshaw has a 27.4-27.1 lead over Wall, a margin of 145 votes. Wall may be able to seek a recount, but it's unclear if she’ll do it.
Until the results started rolling in, it looked likely that Wall would at least have enough support to reach the runoff. Wall used her personal wealth to run ad after ad on TV: Wall spent close to $4 million during the pre-primary period, well ahead of the $300,000 Roberts shelled out. Wall also had the support of Gov. Greg Abbott and Sen. Ted Cruz, something she didn't hesitate to inform voters about. Most of her ads played on her last name and told viewers that Kathaleen Wall supported Trump's border wall.
However, there were at least some signs that Wall's campaign didn't really have their finger on the pulse of the GOP electorate. Abbott appeared in an ad for Wall late in the race calling her "a behind the scenes mover and shaker in Houston politics for years." In this era where almost every candidate is tripping over each other to portray themselves as the real enemy of the establishment whether they actually are or not, it was quite jarring to hear someone embracing a label like that.
By contrast, Crenshaw looked like a candidate with a strong biography but few resources. Crenshaw lost an eye in Afghanistan after being hit by an IED blast in 2012, and he returned to service overseas after surgeries restored his vision. Crenshaw also had an endorsement from none other than Buzz Aldrin. Crenshaw only spent $84,000 during the pre-primary period, so it looked like he'd have a tough time getting his story out to primary voters, but he pulled it off.
This seat was drawn to protect the GOP, but Trump's 52-43 win was considerably weaker than Romney's 63-36 performance. Nonprofit executive Todd Litton was running against Poe before he retired, and he managed to win the five-way Democratic primary outright with 53 percent of the vote.