A pair of polls are out today with bad news for Trump and good news for Democrats. First, Quinnipiac:
American voters give Trump a negative 38 - 56 percent approval rating. There are wide gender and racial gaps. Men approve 44 percent, with 49 percent disapproving. Women disapprove 62 - 33 percent. White voters are divided 47 - 48 percent. Disapproval is 86 - 7 percent among black voters and 68 - 24 percent among Hispanic voters.
Trump gets a divided score for handling the economy as 46 percent of voters approve and 49 percent disapprove. Voters disapprove 61 - 33 percent of his handling of foreign policy.
"President Donald Trump's best card, perhaps his only card, remains the economy where he is close to break-even. He's tanking on foreign policy and he draws even more fire on his handling of Russian President Vladimir Putin," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
In these 2018 elections, 48 percent of voters want the Democratic Party to win control of the U.S. House of Representatives, as 38 percent want Republicans to control the House. Independent voters back Democrats 45 - 33 percent.
Democrats should win control of the U.S. Senate, voters say 49 - 39 percent, including 46 - 35 percent among independent voters.
From March 3 - 5, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,122 voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points, including the design effect. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones.
Second, Monmouth:
Donald Trump’s job approval rating has slipped over the past month, but remains higher than the historic low recorded by the Monmouth University Poll at the end of last year. At the same time, Democrats have widened their lead in the generic House ballot to 9 points as opinion on the new tax reform law has leveled off. Taking a look inside the White House, a majority express concern that the president’s son-in-law Jared Kushner had access to top secret information without permanent clearance and feel that he should resign his position. On a related topic, most Americans believe that the Trump family’s financial interests have an influence over how the president deals with Russia and most say he is not taking the threat of Russian election meddling seriously.
Pres. Trump’s job rating now stands at 39% approve and 54% disapprove. This is a net decline from his 42% approve and 50% disapprove rating at the end of January, but it is still higher than his December 2017 low of 32% approve and 56% disapprove. Opinion of the president may be tied to his main legislative accomplishment – tax reform.
Currently, 41% of the public approve and 42% disapprove of the new tax code reforms signed into law last December. Approval of the plan has leveled off since climbing from 26% in December to 44% in late January. More than one-third (37%) of the public believes their federal taxes will actually go up under the plan and another 3-in-10 (31%) say their taxes will remain about the same. Only 23% expect that their taxes will go down. Even among Republicans, not much more than one-third (35%) expect to see a tax break under the new reforms. These results are basically unchanged from a month ago.
“Republican leaders were sitting pretty at the beginning of the year as it looked like public opinion on the tax reform plan was swinging in their favor. But there hasn’t been any further movement after that initial bump. A key sticking point is that only 1-in-4 Americans expect to see any net gain in their federal tax returns,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.
The poll finds that Democrats have improved their standing on the generic Congressional ballot test. If the election for the House of Representatives was held today, 50% of registered voters say they would vote for or lean toward voting for the Democratic candidate in their district compared to 41% who would support the Republican. The generic House ballot spread was much smaller a month ago (47% Dem and 45% Rep), while Democrats held a 15 point advantage (51% to 36%) at the end of last year.
“The Democratic Party’s lead in the Congressional ballot test has been trending with the net deficit in Trump’s job rating. A spate of recent news stories about family members in the president’s inner circle seems to have played a role in pushing his numbers down and taking the GOP’s standing down with it,” said Murray.
November couldn’t get here sooner.