One of the underreported stories in Texas politics is the vicious civil war going on in the state’s GOP. In the wake of legislative defeats last year on measures favored by extremists, especially the bathroom bill and a school finance bill, Governor Greg Abbott and Lt Governor Dan Patrick targeted several less extreme incumbents in last night’s party primaries, attempting to create one of the most rightwing state legislatures in the country.
Let’s take a look at the returns in some key races and see how successful they were at making the Texas legislature even worse than it is, and speculate a bit on what it might mean for Democrats in November. All returns are as reported by the Texas Secretary of State's office.
State Senate
SD-30: This is one that Patrick wanted badly. Incumbent Craig Estes voted with Patrick nearly every time, but voted against the Lt Governor's successful effort to scrap a rule requiring a 2/3 vote on some measures. Patrick never forgave him, and went so far as to donate $17,000 worth of polling services to opponent Pat Fallon. Patrick’s support paid off, and Estes was crushed by a 40-point margin, possibly the worst defeat for an incumbent state senator in Texas history. Patrick is hoping that other Senators will get the message that he is not to be messed with.
SD-31: Incumbent Kel Seliger is considered one of the more moderate Republican state senators, notably refusing to support Dan Patrick’s re-election bid. Both Patrick and Governor Greg Abbott made statements implying that he was a closet Democrat, but it wasn’t enough. Seliger barely avoided a runoff with 50.41% of the vote in a defeat for Patrick.
State House
This is where the main effort was put in by Abbott and Patrick. Last year the House under the leadership of Joe Straus killed several extreme measures favored by the Governor and Lt Governor, including Patrick’s much-beloved bathroom bill. Straus has retired and Abbott and Patrick are out to reshape the House in the extremist image of the Senate.
HD-23: Greg Abbott gave his support to extremist Mayes Middleton in his attempt to oust incumbent Wayne Faircloth after Faircloth very publicly opposed a bill that would have removed the power of municipalities to regulate tree removal. This was a high-profile race which in which Abbott was very determined to oust the Galveston representative. It looks like Faircloth will no longer speak for the trees, as he was unable to muster more than 43% of last night’s vote.
HD-55: Incumbent Hugh Shine is an ally of Joe Straus and was endorsed by him in this primary. He was condemned by both Patrick and Abbott as a “liberal Republican,” although they made no endorsement in this three-way race. Apparently the voters in district 55 like liberal Republicans, as Shine cruised with 60% of the vote.
HD-73: The incumbent, Kyle Biedermann, is a member of the House Freedom Caucus (the teabaggers) and had the support of Dan Patrick. Although opponent Dave Campbell raised more money than Biedermann in the last half of 2017, the extremists were able to easily hold this seat with 58% of the vote.
HD-87: Incumbent Four Price (his real name) is one of the comparative moderates and has expressed an interest in becoming Speaker. He drew the ire of Patrick when he voted against an amendment to an immigration bill which allows police to question a person’s immigration status during a detainment. Despite being on Patrick’s hit list, Price easily brushed off his opponent with 78% of the vote.
HD-98: Giovanni Capriglione, the current rep, angered Patrick and Abbott because of his support for Speaker Joe Straus. This was a vicious race, with Capriglione’s former campaign consultant and the Tarrant County Tea Party apologizing to voters for having helped him get elected. However, his opponent Armin Mizani was sadly underfunded and the incumbent retained his seat with a healthy 63% of the vote.
HD-99: Charlie Geren, a longtime ally of Joe Straus, was fighting to fend off another challenge from Bo French, who he easily defeated in 2016. Geren’s close association with Straus made him a target of Dan Patrick extremists, and French attracted a large amount of money from around the state. Nonetheless, Geren was able to garner 57% of the vote, very close to his total in 2016.
HD-114: Jason Villalba was a vocal opponent of the bathroom bill, which in Dan Patrick’s eyes made him worse than ISIS. Despite the endorsement of the Dallas Morning News, Villalba lost to challenger Lisa Luby Ryan by 6 percentage points.
HD-121: This was the district that Joe Straus represented, and is a prime target of the Dan Patrick wing of the GOP. Of the six candidates vying for the nomination, Steve Allison and Mark K. Whyte were the more moderate, while Charlotte Williamson worked on Straus’ last campaign. The wingnut candidate was Matt Beebe, who ran against Straus and lost in 2012 and 2014. It looks like the GOP’s warring factions will duke it out again in May, with Beebe (29%) facing Allison (26%) in a runoff.
HD-134—This race is widely regarded as a test of Greg Abbott’s political power. He went all out to help Susanna Dokupil in her bid to defeat incumbent Sarah Davis, even purchasing ads for Dukopil. Davis and Abbott are engaged in an all out war. The governor was infuriated when she fought him on ethics reform (he’s against it, of course) and the extreme anti-choice bills he was pushing. For her part, Davis said in February that she probably would not vote for Abbott this year. This race will be competitive in November—more Democrats than Republicans voted in the primary, and Clinton won it by 15 points in 2016. It probably would have been a cakewalk for Team Blue had Abbott’s efforts been successful, but Davis overcame his opposition to win the nomination by a comfortable 56-44% margin.
In these races Abbott and Patrick were 4 for 11 with one still undecided. Had they been more successful, I believe they would have created an image of the state’s GOP that is too extreme even for many Texas Republicans, giving the Democrats a slightly better shot at statewide and congressional offices. As it stands, it is possible that a few of the harder right voters will be discouraged and stay home, but I doubt that will have a significant impact. A more serious possibility is that the GOP may be weakened as it continues to fight with itself, but that remains to be seen. With the exception of HD-134, none of these races is likely to be competitive in November, so there will be no immediate effect in these particular contests.
The bright side of these results is that the House may be able to once again block some of the very worst legislation, especially if one of the surviving Joe Straus allies can take his place as Speaker, although the far right’s limited success in the primaries may make even that very difficult.
Patrick is going to try to bully the legislature into adopting at least some of his extreme agenda. He’s especially committed to a reprise of the bathroom bill—Mr. Patrick seems to have an unhealthy obsession with other people’s genitals. His continued efforts on that and other ideologically motivated legislation is sure to encounter opposition from Texas’ business community, as it did last year. If he is successful, the opposition could make for an interesting election in 2020.