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Facing the potential of 90 percent increases in Affordable Care Act premiums over the next few years—and the headlines that will go with it just before the next two elections—Republicans do see a need to do something to stabilize the markets. But they're Republicans, and it's Obamacare. If they're not repealing it, they're having to find some way to sabotage it. So why not bring up something that really doesn't have anything to do with restoring cost-sharing reduction payments: abortion.
Last week, Sen. Patty Murray of Washington, a lead Democratic negotiator, called GOP demands on abortion limitations "a complete nonstarter." A spokeswoman for Rep. Ryan Costello, R-Pa., sponsor of the House GOP package, said if Democrats want to oppose the effort "by playing abortion politics, then shame on them." […]
"Either Republicans help stabilize the market or they own these premium and deductible increases," said Rep. Kurt Schrader, D-Ore. "And I'd be glad to help crucify them if they don’t want to do something very reasonable."
The effort forces Republicans to choose between trying to avert bad news about premiums shortly before elections or standing by their opposition to anything that could be viewed as propping up "Obamacare."
Trump hasn't clarified things for his party. In a single day last October, he bounced from praising one bipartisan plan as "a very good solution" to labeling it "bailouts to insurance companies."
The problem for Republicans is that the study that found those potential 90 percent premium increases over the next few years, including 32 percent this fall, pinpointed 14 Trump-voting states that will be hit the hardest. But the thing is, because of the way federal subsidies in the law work and the way the states allowed carriers to set premiums, many people buying Obamacare plans found they were paying substantially less than they would have before Trump sabotaged the law by ending the CSR payments to insurers.
That gives Democrats some room to refuse to budge when it comes to piling on abortion restrictions beyond what's already in the law.
Complicating matters more for Republicans is the White House demand that they also allow insurers to charge older customers higher premiums than permitted under Obamacare, and increase the length of short-term catastrophic policies that don't meet the consumer protection requirements of the law. Republicans who are already worried about headlines this October declaring huge premium increases are not going to love headlines that say older Americans are going to have to pay more.
The other challenge for Republicans is that they pretty much have to figure all this out in the next 10 days, before the deadline for the omnibus spending bill has to be passed. That's the government shutdown deadline that Congress set last month. This is the last big vehicle for legislation that's going to happen this year, and prospects for stand-alone bills like this getting through Congress are slim.