One of our closest NATO allies, with whom we share numerous military treaty obligations has just been subject to a chemical weapons attack authorized by and carried out with the approval of a recent and historically hostile government.
Presuming that the statements and facts surrounding the poisoning of a former Russian double agent and the murder of a former Aeroflot executive are accurate, verifiable, and being reported in full, then there are two things that are quite likely:
A) Britain declares some version of anathema on Russia: sanctions, war, diplomatic freeze, cut diplomatic ties, economic reprisals. The US, as a close treaty ally, declares in support. Conflict escalates.
B) Britain declares anathema, the US under Trump refuses to get involved. Treaty obligations voided and ignored, reputation shattered, the US is no longer considered “trusted” by large numbers of current allies from Europe (NATO) to Asia (Taiwan, Korea, Japan, Philippines, and others), Australia, Africa, South America, their mutual obligations to us are now considered void. Treaty organizations thus weakened, Russia continue to escalate operations, China considers itself free to operate as it pleases. North Korea continues research and development on nuclear forces.
A third option that is not likely:
Britain declares anathema, US ignores it, so does everyone else… things continue as “normal”…
Final option, least likely:
Britain declares anathema, US ignores it, US government/military/intelligence forces engineer Trump’s ouster either through impeachment or through military intervention in civilian affairs (“against all enemies foreign and domestic”).
Whatever the case, there is nothing “normal” about what just happened. If this was, indeed, approved by and funded by the Russian government, using Russian nerve agents, presumably employing Russian intelligence officers or assets… this was not, then, a “terrorist” attack. Terrorist attacks are defined to be carried out by non-state actors.
Nope. This was an act of territorial violation by a government against another government.
Also known as an act of war.