CA-49: GOP Rep. Darrell Issa is retiring from this suburban San Diego seat, and both sides have crowded contests to succeed him. While Democrats haven't hidden how they're worried about a top-two disaster here, the math may be a bit better for them in this district than it is in a few nearby seats. Four Democrats ended up filing compared to eight Republicans, while four other candidates are also running.
Issa narrowly fended off retired Marine Col. Doug Applegate as this district swung from 52-46 Romney to 51-43 Clinton, and Applegate wasted zero time announcing he would run again. A recent SurveyUSA poll showed Applegate taking first place in the top-two with 18 percent, while Assemblyman Rocky Chavez edged fellow Republican Diane Harkey, the chair of the state Board of Equalization, 17-10 for the second general election spot. An early March poll from Change Research for the Democratic group Fight Back CA also gave Applegate an early lead:
Retired Marine Col. Doug Applegate (D): 23
Assemblyman Rocky Chavez (R): 15
Environmental attorney Mike Levin (D): 11
Board of Equalization Chair Diane Harkey (R): 10
Former Hillary Clinton presidential campaign policy adviser Sara Jacobs (D): 7
San Diego County Supervisor Kristin Gaspar (R): 4
Note that this poll also included Democrat Christina Prejean, an attorney who has since dropped out of the race; Prejean took 3 percent.
However, Applegate may have a tough time holding onto a lead. Applegate had $249,000 on-hand at the end of December (Issa retired in January), considerably less than any of his Democratic foes. The rest of the field is also using their resources to get their names out. Kerr, who had $520,000 to spend, recently began airing his second commercial. Levin, who served as executive director of the Orange County Democratic Party a decade ago, had $486,000 in the bank.
Jacobs, who has the support of EMILY's List, has already done some considerable self-funding (Jabobs is the granddaughter of Irwin Jacobs, the co-founder of the telecommunications giant Qualcomm), and she had a $1.2 million war chest. However, Jacobs attracted some bad headlines last month when she reportedly responded to a question about how she'd connect with the district's large military population with, "It's true. I'm not a crusty old Marine," a remark that didn't go over well.
Things are also quite messy on the GOP side. Issa immediately endorsed Harkey, who is a former local legislator, on his way out. However, Harkey has some baggage. Harkey and her husband, Dan Harkey, drew bad headlines in 2013 when they were sued for preying on elders in a Ponzi scheme. Diane Harkey was later dismissed from the case, but her husband was ultimately found culpable and ordered to repay $11.6 million. That didn't end Diane Harkey's involvement in the matter, however: After investors proved unable to recover money from either Harkey, they succeeded in garnishing Diane Harkey's wages as a legislator. Harkey has also faced questions from her time on California's tax board.
Both polls show Chavez, who represents about two-thirds of the seat in the Assembly, doing well. However, Chavez is a notoriously bad fundraiser, and he may not have much appeal to Trump-era Republicans. Chavez has the support of former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who is hated by both California conservatives and Donald Trump himself.
Gaspar, who was elected to the San Diego County Board of Supervisors in 2016, hasn't registered much in the few polls we have, but she may have room to grow. Gaspar has an endorsement from San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, who is one of the few big names in the state GOP. San Juan Capistrano City Councilman Brian Maryott is the remaining elected official on the GOP side.