I hear John Bolton is going to take the US into a war against Iran. There’s no doubt that he would if he could but he can’t because Vladimir Putin won’t allow it. He has the last word and Trump will fire Bolton before he attacks Iran.
Look what happened to H.R. McMaster after he tangled with the Russian delegation at the Munich Security Conference a month ago.
Speaking to an audience of his peers, McMaster said that the evidence of Russian meddling in the US election was “incontrovertible.” Responding to a question from a member of the Russian delegation about the potential for cooperation between the US and Russia on cyber security, McMaster said:
“I’m surprised there are any Russian cyber experts available based on how active most of them have been in undermining our democracies in the West.”
Trump tweeted his response almost immediately. The media chatter said McMaster was out until they moved on to another topic.
Putin understands how the US rolls. He knows that Bolton’s warmongering against Iran helps Trump with domestic politics. He may give Rouhani assurances and even post a transcript of their conversations on the Kremlin website. Bolton will say what he likes inside the borders of the US. If he wants to play tough guy elsewhere, Putin will react. If he suggests in any way that the US is going to take military action against Iran, he’s out.
This isn’t because Putin is a good guy. He isn’t. It’s not to downplay Bolton, either.
It’s important to recognize the gravity of our present situation and circumstances.
I assume that Daily Kos readers understand that a war with Iran would be an atrocity with catastrophic consequences for people there and for the US. Nobody wants to repeat the war in Iraq, or the chaos and terrorism that followed it.
Does it make sense to assume that Putin would see harmful consequences for the US, too, and for that reason, stay out of our way?
What does he say about Iraq? He says that the US created the conditions for terrorism close to Russia’s southern border and there were no consequences. He says that the US would do it again by removing Assad in Syria.
When Chechen combatants enlisted with ISIL and returned to Russia with a mission, did it harm the US? When Sunni combatants enlisted with ISIL and attacked Iran’s parliament, did it harm the US?
Putin won’t allow the US to create more chaos and terrorism close to Russia’s southern border by attacking Iran because it would be an existential threat to his country. That’s how Putin explained it after a series of horrific shootouts with Chechen’s returning from Syria and Iraq. From Russia’s point of view, there’s no harm done to the US from which he would benefit.
It must be hard for some readers here to imagine that he has his own way of seeing things. A war with Iran would have harmful consequences for Russia that would last for years.